We move into the knockout stages of the FIFA Club World Cup on Saturday with the first two matches in the round of 16 taking place in a tournament which is really beginning to come to the boil nicely ahead of the do or die action.
Four teams are on show on Saturday each with a huge chance of making it through to the quarter finals of this lucrative event and having the chance of a spot in the semi-finals right in front of them so expect a competitive day of action.
Palmeiras vs Botafogo (17.00 – DAZN)
We begin the knockout stages in Philadelphia where two Brazilian outfits will battle it out for a spot in the quarter finals of the competition when big spending Palmeiras go up against their Serie A rivals Botafogo.
This should be a cracking way to open up the knockout stuff as two teams who have impressed for different reasons meet. Palmeiras have looked really good going forward and have come through to this phase of the tournament unbeaten and catching the eye, as you would expect a side with their outlay to have done. Botafogo came out of the Group of Death for which they deserve plenty of credit and although they were beaten by Atletico Madrid in their final game in the group, they were in a position where they could afford to do that so we shouldn’t hold that against them. These two are no strangers to facing off against each other. They have done it five times in the last 12 months or so and Botafogo have won three and drawn the other two so I’m a little surprised that they are the outsiders in this match. They have spent a lot of money since the end of last season but Botafogo genuinely kept Paris Saint-Germain at bay and although they took their foot off the gas against Seattle Sounders, there isn’t really many more holes to pick in them. This is going to be a tight match between two sides who know each other very well and with a huge prize on the line so the draw has to be a runner and nobody would be surprised to see extra time and penalties here so the fact that you can get Botafogo with a quarter goal start feels a little wrong to me. That is my first bet on this match.
I also like a little put together bet builder of Palmeiras to have 13 or more shots and Botafogo to have over 2.5 cards. I was considering playing these as singles but the bottom has fallen out of the prices so I like the idea of pairing them together. Palmeiras have registed double digits for shots in 12 of their last 13 matches in all competitions with nine of those getting up to 13 shots and in those five meetings with Botafogo in the last 12 months or so their shot count has been 18, seven, 25, 19 and 13 with the seven being the first leg of a Copa Libertadores tie. They look good going forward and while Botafogo haven’t given up big chances in this competition very often they did allow 23 shots to both Seattle and Atletico Madrid and 16 against Paris Saint-Germain. 13 Palmeiras shots looks good here. Botafogo are no strangers to the book though. In those meetings with Palmeiras their card count has been 2, 3, 5, 4 and 3. They have already had two bookings in two of their three matches here and with the extra spice and importance to this one I expect three more players to make their way into the book of Francois Letexier who takes no nonsense.
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Benfica vs Chelsea (21.00 – DAZN)
The second match of the night sees the surprise Group C winners Benfica going up against the probable unlikely runners-up in Group D in the form of the Europa Conference League winners Chelsea in Charlotte.
Benfica would have been expected to come second to Bayern Munich in the group stage but their win over them in the final game meant that they won the group. Chelsea would have been well-fancied to top Group D but Flamengo got hold of that script and tore it up. As luck would have it, it might have done Chelsea a favour because they have landed in much the easier looking side of the draw and now they need to show up and take advantage of it. I haven’t really been convinced by Chelsea at any stage in this tournament though but I do think if they come with their best then they will win this match. Benfica don’t convince me defensively and while they have gone well in attack in this tournament, it is hard to know what they have come up against. This is a bit of a tricky game to call but the one bet which appeals to me here is Chelsea to commit over 12.5 fouls. In the tournament so far the Blues have committed 11, 14 and 12 fouls and with the stakes higher here you would imagine that will naturally go up which is a positive when you consider that they have been around the mark we need anyway. Benfica have only really played one fully competitive match in this tournament and they drew 13 fouls in that one. There are technical players in this Benfica side who go at their defender and draw fouls while Chelsea give more fouls away than usual with their high press so I like over 12.5 Chelsea fouls here.
Tips
Back Botafogo (+0.25AH) to beat Palmeiras for a 3/10 stake at 1.98 with Bet365
Back Palmeiras 13+ shots and Botafogo over 2.5 cards for a 3/10 stake at 2.20 with Betway
Back Chelsea – Over 12.5 fouls for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with William Hill
Back them here:
