It is the turn of Group C to conclude at the FIFA World Cup 2022 on Wednesday evening and for the second time in four days it is do or die for Argentina who know they need to beat Poland to keep their hopes of winning the tournament alive.
Poland are in much the better position of the two. They will be through if they avoid defeat in this match but they could also progress with a narrow defeat if the other game in the group happens to be a draw.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the BBC 1 channel in the UK. Once again there is a build-up to it which begins at 6.30pm and kick off is at 7pm.
Poland
Although their tournament record is terrible, Poland have got themselves into the position whereby they control their own destiny in their final group game which would have been their initial aim. It might have been that they had qualification secured had Robert Lewandowski converted a penalty in the opening game but having not done that they need something from this game to ensure their progression. Poland so far have given a very good display and a less than convincing one.
It goes without saying that they will need the more convincing version to come to the party here. They also need to work out a game plan of whether to just sit deep and look to secure the draw they need or look to win the game. That might not be the easiest plan to formulate because if you look to win and leave space for the likes of Lionel Messi you could be in trouble. They are probably better at defending but the less the Argentina attackers see of the ball the better it will be from a Polish standpoint.
Argentina
The slow start to the tournament for Argentina has been covered extensively but there was a clear overreaction from that defeat. Had they lost the opening game to Poland or Mexico I don’t think too many people would have made as much of it as they did because it came against Saudi Arabia but two wondergoals aside they dominated that match and they did the same against Mexico. For all the doubts over Argentina, the two teams they have faced have created a combined 0.35 xG.
It is at the other end where the Copa America champions have flattered to deceive a little. They created very little against Mexico in the second game having piled up the chances in their first one but importantly against Mexico they got the goals they needed and you would expect them to show more life in attacking areas the longer the competition goes on and the combinations get used to each other again.
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Team News
Poland are expected to go in with a slightly more defensive approach for this game with Arkadiusz Milik, who came in for the win over Saudi Arabia, potentially making way for a midfielder who will shore the centre of the pitch up.
Argentina boss Lionel Scaloni has a fully fit squad to choose from. He is expected to give the goalscoring hero of the win over Mexico, Enzo Fernandez, a first start while his defensive line could be freshened up too.
Betting
I don’t think Argentina have been quite as bad as people are making out in this tournament. We are still waiting to see the best of them from an attacking point of view but I really think that will come and I would expect it to come here. Poland have just shipped an xG total of 2.25 to Saudi Arabia and there is no doubting that the ability in this Argentina attack is a world above that of the Saudis so this is a match I expect Argentina to win.
I don’t see this being a high scoring match though. I expect Argentina to dominate the ball and should they go ahead in the game there will be an element of protecting what they have and ensuring they go through rather than running up the score. Poland are only likely to offer adventure when they are forced to do it and I’m not convinced they are going to create much against an organised Argentina defence anyway. That makes me think that Argentina to win and under 3.5 goals is the way to approach this one.
Tips
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