The big leagues have all paused for the FIFA World Cup which gets underway amid a raft of controversy in Qatar on Sunday as 32 of the leading nations in the world head to the new host of the tournament looking to be crowned world champions.
France achieved that honour four years ago when they took care of Croatia in the final in Russia and they have qualified to attempt to be the first team since Brazil in 1962 to successfully defend the crown. This feels like a wide open tournament though.
Recent Winners
2018 – France
2014 – Germany
2010 – Spain
2006 – Italy
2002 – Brazil
1998 – France
1994 – Brazil
1990 – West Germany
1986 – Argentina
1982 – Italy
The Format
One of the good things about the World Cup is the format of it is pretty simple. The 32 sides are split into eight groups of four with each playing the other teams in their group once. At the end of all that the top two from each table go into the knockout stage where the tournament is a straight knockout from the last 16 onwards. Matches that are level after 90 minutes have a full 30 minutes of extra time and if they are still level penalties will decide the outcome.
The rules are all the same as four years ago apart from one major change. That is the modified use of VAR for the first time which means all offsides are going to be automated and judged by technology which will be different to what we see in domestic leagues around the world.
The Favourites
Brazil haven’t won this tournament since 2002 but they go into the 2022 version as the 4/1 favourites to win it for a sixth time. There is a lot to like about Brazil, not least the wealth of star young attacking talent to complement Neymar, while they also boast potentially the two best goalkeepers in the world game which shouldn’t be forgotten. Things have tended to go against Brazil in these tournaments in recent times though and interestingly a year ago they were not good enough to win the Copa America so while they are worthy favourites, Brazil do still have something to prove.
Argentina were the team who denied them that Copa America title and they are 6/1 second favourites to take the trophy for the first time since 1986. Back then Argentina had the best player in the world in Diego Maradona who crowned his greatness when leading his nation to glory. Move it to 2022 and they are in the same boat with Lionel Messi looking to put the seal on his incredible career when he bids to add the World Cup prize alongside the Copa America he won a year ago. We saw last year that this Argentina side is much more efficient than many who have gone before and given that they have experience of winning tournaments you could argue they have the edge on Brazil.
The defending champions France are the 15/2 third favourites to win the tournament. You have to go back 60 years for the last time a team defended the Jules Rimet Trophy successfully so history is certainly against the French and while they clearly have a front line to be feared, they don’t look nearly as strong at the other end of the park and that could be a concern. Throw into the a tricky group and a tough draw if they don’t win that and France can be overlooked fairly easily at the prices.
Contenders
Spain were the champions in the last low scoring World Cup and with the intense heat and temperatures expected in this tournament this one is expected to be low scoring too so Luis Enrique’s men could interest many at 9/1. This isn’t a Spain side that have had the stars of the past, with it being a younger squad than usual but it is one in which there is no room for the likes of David de Gea, Sergio Ramos, Thiago or Iago Aspas so this is very much a transitional Spain side. They made the semi-final in Euro 2020 last year and with another year of experience behind them they could be contenders.
England were only beaten in the final of Euro 2020 and it took a penalty shootout to deny them. That built on a wonderful World Cup campaign in 2018 when they reached the semi-final before going down in extra time to Croatia. England have been competitive for a while under Gareth Southgate and while there are question marks over the form of some key players from those two tournaments, if those players can find their best in an environment which allows them to do so, England could yet be around right at the end of this competition. Their 10/1 price is as big as it has been for a while.
Germany are renowned for bringing their best to tournament football and they are 12/1 to saunter off with the World Cup for the first time since 2014 when they took care of Argentine in Brazil. This doesn’t feel like a standout Germany side but it might be that the lack of stars within their ranks bring together a cohesive unit but their Nations League results didn’t inspire and they were dumped out in the last 16 at the Euros last year. Throw in that they are in a group with Spain and this doesn’t look like the best chance Germany will have to win the title.
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Dark Horses
If you are a greyhound punter you’ll be familiar with the term back the best drawn dog not the best dog and the Netherlands might just be that in this tournament. They look to have a group they can dominate and then their potential last 16 draw isn’t too bad either. Any team who make the quarter finals will fancy their chances and with arguably the best centre-back in the world, some classy midfield operators and some decent attacking options, the Dutch could be value at 14/1 to finally get their hands on this title for the first time in their illustrious history.
Portugal are another team who will like the look of their draw and if the rumblings between Cristiano Ronaldo and his club side inspire him to show them what they are missing then the former European champions could be value at 17/1. The big issue with them is while they have a raft of talent in their side, they look like a team who are aging a little and they had to go through the play-offs just to make it into this tournament. I think they’ll find one or two too good somewhere along the line.
We have been in an era of a Belgium golden generation for the last six years or so but it hasn’t delivered anything in terms of silverware and they haven’t even been to a final either which would have to be a negative. This is a side who are getting old together and while one or two of the younger players are talented I don’t think there is enough young talent to make me think that Belgium will be any better than what has gone before. They were semi-finalists four years ago but I don’t see this team being any better.
Main Bet
I think this tournament is all about Argentina. They look to have every base covered and are maturing into a really good side, one which doesn’t allow too much at one end of the pitch but perhaps just as importantly creates plenty at the other end of the pitch. We are used to the World Cup allowing greatness to thrive and there haven’t been many better in the world game than Lionel Messi and with the confidence of getting it done in the Copa America last year behind them, Argentina look a dangerous beast.
Previous Argentina sides who have gone to World Cups have needed Messi to carry them. This one doesn’t. They have plenty of creativity in the middle of the park and some good options at the top end of the pitch and just as importantly in this tournament they look very tight at the back with a keeper the defence trusts as well. Argentina have a group they should cruise through and as confidence builds I expect them to be very tough to stop.
Outsiders
The Netherlands are a team I expect to go well in this tournament. They should breeze through Group A and then from there they will get the runner up of Group B which doesn’t look like a terrible draw in the round of 16. I always say in these tournaments that when you reach the quarter final anyone can win them because they tend to tighten up and get settled on individual pieces of brilliance or a penalty shootout. The Netherlands have plenty of attacking options and a solid base in defence and in the centre of the park. I think there is juice in their 14/1 price and I’ll pay to see how they go.
I also think Croatia could be overpriced. You would have said last year that this tournament might have been a year too far for them. They were disappointing at Euro 2020 last year but they have come good in the Nations League since then and could well have a plum draw in this tournament if they can get the better of Belgium in their group. Croatia have a spine of the side which went to the final of this tournament four years ago and they might have fire in their belly to go one better while the younger players have the legs to allow those star men to thrive. I’m big on the best drawn teams in this tournament and Croatia certainly can’t complain at theirs so I’ll take them in this event.
Tips
Back Argentina to win World Cup for a 3/10 stake at 7.00 with Betway
Back Netherlands to win World Cup (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with William Hill (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
Back Croatia to win World Cup (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfred (1/2 1-2)
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