The Asian Swing concludes on the DP World Tour this week when the inaugural Hainan Classic takes place in Hainan where there are plenty of rewards up for grabs beyond just winning the first staging of this new tournament.
We are going to get a first time winner of the tournament this week but things are getting interesting in the Asian Swing leaderboard where Keita Nakajima has the current lead and he could be on for all the benefits that come along if he can hold on to that advantage.
The Course
We are at the Mission Hills Resort in Hainan Island this week and the Blackstone Course in particular. This is the first time that the track will have hosted a DP World Tour event but it has staged the World Cup of Golf in 2011 so we have had a little bit of a look at the place in the past. The course is a par 72 which can stretch all the way out to 7,711 yards so it can be a bit of a monster if the organisers want it to be and given that it concludes the Asian Swing you would imagine that it will be set up fairly tough.
It probably isn’t the biggest revelation in the world that length looks to be a huge advantage around here given the fact that this place looks a bit of a monster but the fairways are wide too which will further play into the hands of the longer hitters. The course is going to be new for most of the players in the field so it wouldn’t be a complete surprise were a poor putter to come to the fore this week so I would very much be looking at one of the longer hitters here.
The Field
We’re only three weeks away from the next major over in America so I doubt anyone involved in organising this tournament would have been expecting the strongest field of the season and that is pretty much how it is playing out. Just one member of the top 100 in the world rankings are here this week and that is Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen. Home stars Ashun Wu, who will be looking for successive Chinese event wins, and Haotong Li both give some added profile to the field.
Along with Haotong Li, two other members of the top 10 in the Race to Dubai rankings are in the field this week. They are Daniel Hillier and Keita Nakajima with the latter looking for a big week to maintain his lead in the Asian Swing standings. Dylan Naidoo, Eugenio Chacarra, Johannes Veerman and Elvis Smylie are all top 15 Race to Dubai ranked players in the field while Calum Hill will look to build on his 20th spot in those standings.
Market Leaders
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen is the highest ranked player in the field this week and he is the 12/1 favourite to win the tournament as a result of that. The freedom off the tee here should play right into the hands of the Dane and he comes here off the back of three top 10 finishes in his last five DP World Tour starts. He is yet to win at this level which would be a concern for me if I was going to back him but to be fair the course looks to set up well for him and he could be tough to beat.
Haotong Li would have been confident of winning the China Open when he shared the led going into the final round last week but he couldn’t get the job done in the pressure cooker of the last group on Sunday. He is 14/1 to make up for that by winning this tournament instead and the extra freedom that this place provides off the tee might give him a better chance here. You would imagine that this is a course Haotong would have played at some point in his golfing life and that would certainly be an advantage too. I wouldn’t rule him out.
There are a trio of players who are 18/1 to win this week and they are the only other players in the field who are shorter than 25/1. The trio in question are Keita Nakajima, Wenyi Ding and Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra. The former is extremely motivated while Ding would love to win a tournament on home soil and this is the last chance he’ll get to do it on the DP World Tour this year. Lopez-Chacarra is the form horse having won the Indian Open and played in the final group last week so cases can be made for all three players.
Main Bets
Daniel Hillier is one of the longer hitters on the DP World Tour given that he ranks at 33 for driving distance and he’ll be a lot higher than that at the end of the week because few of those above him are in the field for this tournament. Hillier probably should have won the Dubai Desert Classic but got touched off by Tyrrell Hatton but that was in a much better field than he is going to be in here. The Australian has won at DP World Tour level having taken down the British Masters a couple of seasons ago. He has four other top 25 finishes this season along with that run in Dubai and at 40/1 or thereabouts he feels a good bet.
Marco Penge hasn’t achieved that Hillier has on the DP World Tour yet but he sits at fourth in the statistic of driving distance for the second and two of the three above him aren’t in the field this week. Penge arrives here in decent enough form having finished third and T19 in South Africa last month and T26 in China last week. His length should be a big thing this week and he is one of those players who I think could make a breakthrough soon because there isn’t a real weakness in the bag. Usually these are the tournaments that players make that career step in so I’ll pay to see if he does that this week.
Outsiders
Ivan Cantero had an excellent start to the season, especially when we got to the middle east where he put a fine run of form together. He went T5-T4-T14 at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, Bahrain and Qatar Masters and although he has gone a little quiet since then, the Spaniard has played on some tight tracks in the intervening time. Even then he shot three under par rounds in Singapore recently so he is hitting the ball well and this wide open track should really allow him to let his length flow and put him in positions where he can make hay. Had this tournament come hot off the heels of those events in the UAE and nearby you would have thought that Cantero would be half the price he is so I’ll pay to see what he has in him here.
Gavin Green is one of the longer hitters on the DP World Tour as well and with the wide open expanses to land the ball off the tee that this course provides he should be licking his lips at having a strong week here. The Malaysian was T25 in South Africa last month and T20 in Singapore recently too so he is beginning to trend in the right direction ahead of this test, which if it does suit him as well as I would expect it to then he should be right in the mix. He hasn’t always gone well on a Sunday when he should do but hopefully in this company he can change that if given the chance.
Tips
Back D.Hillier to win Hainan Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back M.Penge to win Hainan Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
Back I.Cantero to win Hainan Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Spreadex (1/5 1-6)
Back G.Green to win Hainan Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
