The turf flat season kicks off in Ireland today and the traditional curtain raiser is the Irish Lincoln. Normally held at the Curragh, this 1 mile handicap moves to Naas this year and you usually find the race being run on very soft ground which is likely today. Naas has a stiff finish so you need to be siding with a horse that will get the trip; a big field handicap on bad ground with a climb to the finish will find out the speed merchants.
Favourites
There’s an 18 strong field going to post headed by Paul Deegan’s Aussie Valentine and Dermot Weld’s Sikandarabad. Both of these horses are hard to rule out of final calculations. The former has run in this race in the past 2 years, finishing 2nd both times and comes here this time 5lb lower in the weights. The normal path to glory here is to come without a prep run so the fact he ran at Dundalk a couple of weeks ago raises some question marks especially as his trainer didn’t follow that route in 2015 or 2016.
Skiandarabad is the typical lightly raced sort that could be anything. He’s yet to win over this trip but that’s hardly offputting as his only run over the trip was a 2nd of 24 to another of today’s rivals, Sea Wolf, in the Irish Cambridgeshire. I think 5/1 is plenty short enough for a horse with potential ground doubts but also from a stable that is talking down his chances with Weld saying that his horses were ‘more forward a month ago’. Sea Wolf is 5lb higher for that Cambridgeshire win and is unproven on the ground so isn’t my selection today.
Selections
It’s hard to pass over 2015 winner and top weight Onenightidreamed but a mark of 107 will be tough to defy here so instead I’m siding with 2 that will love the ground, Gentil J and Canary Row. Gentil J is a winner of 2 of her 8 starts and they have been her 2 most recent runs so she comes here at the top of her game. Since moving stables in August, she’s shot up the weights in the process of 3 excellent handicap runs. Arguably the most impressive of those was her victory over this trip at Listowel where she handled the heavy ground well and pushed out to win comfortably by over 2 lengths. Wayne Lordan has ridden her twice, winning both times and he’s also a winner of a couple of Irish Lincoln’s so we have the right man doing the steering. She likes to come from off the pace but will be finishing off better than most and I fancy her chances provided a 7lb higher mark doesn’t stop here.
Canary Row is another in with a great shout. Now a 7 year old and a veteran of 37 races but he has all the credentials to land the spoils here. He did finish behind a couple of these last season but today he has his ground. That said, he ran well all last term including winning first time up in a decent 16 runner handicap at Limerick. He was beaten in a handicap here by Marshall Jennings when an ever diminishing head was the distance. However, he’s 14lb better off with the winner today. Aussie Valentine was 2 lengths back in 3rd but that rival is 5lb better off today. He also ran in the Cambridgeshire finishing 8th behind Sea Wolf, Sikandarabad and Texas Rock but the ground was no good to our selection there. His last 3 pieces of form on soft/heavy ground read 2-1-4 and another positive is his record fresh, winning first time up 12 months ago. He has raced in this race before finishing 5th 2 seasons back when racing all alone on one side of the track. With a 7lb lower mark and 2 years more experience, he may well make amends here.
Tips
Back Gentil J (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Betfred (¼ 1-4 BOG)
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Back Canary Row (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 Bet365 (¼ 1-4 BOG)
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