The first of the 5 Classics, the 2000 Guineas is upon us. A race for the boys, the best of the 3 year old milers go head to head over Newmarket Rowley course.
Preview
Looking at the last 5 renewals, we’ve seen 3 winners go off favourite but the other returned at tasty odds of 14/1 and 40/1. All 5 have recorded a best RPR of at least 110 & only 2 of the 5 won last time out although the other 3 finished in the first 3 last time.
4 of the 5 made their debuts over a trip short of 7 furlongs & only 1 of the winners had ever tried a mile before this race (but without success).
In summary, good form is essential with a decent RPR in the book but a last time out win is not essential whilst form over the trip isn’t a prerequisite either.
Favourite
Aiden O’Brien has plundered this prize 4 times over the last 10 years and saddles the 2 market leaders this time around too. Gustav Klimt is ridden by Seamie Heffernan & has won his last 3, all over 7 furlongs. He holds solid claims but was only workmanlike in winning the Superlative last summer by a head from Nebo, who reopposes today but is a 100/1 shot. His price contracted somewhat after a reappearance win in the Leopardstown Guineas trial but that was on heavy ground &, whilst he’s hard to keep out of calculations, I couldn’t back him at 3/1 with any confidence.
Contenders
O’Brien’s 2nd fancied runner, Saxon Warrior, led the market over the winter after winning the Racing Post Trophy from Roaring Lion. He’s said to be massive horse that has grown significantly over the winter & the big question is whether or not he has the tactical speed for this. Thought to be more of a Derby horse, I’m happy to wait for another day.
Masar was most impressive in landing the Craven by 9 lengths but he’s surely flattered by that run, having already had a run he had proven fitness against his rivals. I’m not a fan & don’t think he’s good enough. Johnston’s Elarqam could be anything but, for me, the trainer puts me off in the very top quality races & I think he’ll prove better later in the season.
Roaring Lion is a big price based on his run in the Racing Post Trophy but was incredibly disappointing in that Craven & James Garfield has a chance after quickening to land the Greenham.
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Betting
However, the one I like for each way money is the one who finished behind James Garfield that day, Expert Eye. He has drifted to a big price off the back of 2 disappointing runs but there are definite reasons why he hasn’t shown his best. The ground in the Greenham was a little soft for him & they went a snail’s pace in a race where he struggled to settle early. The fact he stayed on well under conditions that didn’t suit pleased me & I expect him to come on for that run.
He was made odds-on favourite for the Dewhurst but finished lame so that can be ignored but is better judged on a superb performance in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood where he scooted clear from some good rivals by over 4 lengths.
He ticks plenty of boxes having started out at 6 furlongs, only running at 7 since & failing to win last time out. He has a best RPR of 109, will be fit from that run at Newbury & the bigger field / better ground will play to his strengths. He looks a nice each way alternative to the O’Brien pair.
Tips
Back Expert Eye (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Paddy Power BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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