It is a big day of racing in Ireland today and after a 10/1 winner yesterday we are going to get stuck into proceedings at the Curragh. We’ve got a selection for the big race and we’re attacking a couple of the handicaps on the card too.
4.10 Curragh: Irish 1000 Guineas
Preview
The big race over in Ireland today is the 1000 Guineas where 3rd in the same race over at Newmarket, Happily, has been installed as a warm favourite. She is the most likely winner of this but I can’t be backing her at 6/4. Clemmie is 2nd favourite but this is her seasonal reappearance & I reckon Royal Ascot is a more realistic target. I’m not sure what to make of Soliloquy; excellent in the Nell Gwyn, disappointing in the Guineas. I think her Nell Gwyn run may have flattered her as she has the run of the race.
Betting
The one I like at bigger odds is Alpha Centauri. Behind those 3 mentioned, she’s the next highest rated in the field & is some 4lbs clear of anything else. The negatives first; she’s been very disappointing on her last 2 starts finishing behind Happily in the Moyglare at the tail end of last season & then she was out the back on her reappearance run behind another of today’s rivals, Whos Steph. However, there was heavy in the going description both time & it’s evident she needs good ground or better.
On previous form, she’s the one to beat. Won her maiden easily on firmish ground before following up in a Listed race, beating Actress by 5 lengths. She then went to Royal Ascot & was narrowly beaten in the Albany but the front 2 came over 3 lengths clear. The form is rock solid.
This is her first try over a mile but breeding suggests there are no stamina doubts. Provided she’s back to her early season form of last season, she’ll go close with only Happily holding stronger claims.
Tips
WON – Back Alpha Centauri (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 17.00 Coral BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
WON – Back Alpha Centauri in the “without Happily” market for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Coral
Back them here:
There are 3 Premier handicaps on the card too & we have bets in 2 of them.
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3.35 Curragh
Main Bet
17 runners, 10 furlongs and 11/2 the field. It looks a minefield at first glance but there are 2 that stick out a mile. The first of those is course specialist, Breathe Easy. He’s been off the track for 259 days which is a slight concern but he’s won & been 2nd before after similar absences so I’m expected his yard will have primed for this. The thing with this horse is that he absolutely loves it here. 4 wins & 4 2nds from 16 starts is pretty impressive & this is his trip. Add to that the fact he goes well for today’s jockey & he’s a different horse on better ground, there’s masses in his favour.
Despite having never won off a mark so high, he’s been given a chance by the handicapper. He’s been 2nd on 3 of his last 6 runs at the track including 2 over the distance, off marks of 87,88 & 89 but he’s been dropped 5lbs to a mark of 84 for this race. Fitness aside, I can’t see any reason why he’s trading at double figure odds.
Outsider
The 2nd one I can’t get away from is Spruce Meadows. He struggles to get his head in front but is incredibly consistent with form figures since winning last August of 33368423. That’s seen his handicap mark stay largely unchanged. He goes on any ground & has a good chance on a line through our 1st selection.
He’s been unlucky on recent runs to bump into some well handicapped rivals & that would be the slight worry today. Last time out over course & distance, he was 7 lengths 3rd to a well handicapped pair but came clear of the other 12 runners. That’s a solid piece of form & a repeat will see him in the mix at a very big price.
Tips
Back Breathe Easy (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 William Hill BOG (¼ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
Back Spruce Meadows (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 19.00 Unibet BOG (¼ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
4.45 Curragh
Preview
Another good looking handicap, this time over 1 mile, & there’s a well fancied favourite in Maths Prize who won well last time out but on very different ground & back up 8lbs in the handicap, he may struggle to follow up.
Betting
I’m a big fan of Katiymann. He’s a quite lightly raced 6 year old & is the pick of his trainers 5 runners here. He’s been doing most of his running on the all weather at Dundalk, winning twice & placing twice from 4 runs which has seen his mark go up to 93.
Suggestions are that he’s a bit high in the weight after he finished 6th of 13 on his reappearance run but a replay of that race strongly indicates otherwise. It was hot handicap & there’ll be bag of winners to come out of that race. In fact, the horse that finished 1 place behind our selection is the only horse to have run since & he won. A sign of things to come, maybe. He travelled best of all that day & made eyecatching headway from the back of the field. Last to go for the whip, he looked to be the most likely winner but didn’t pick up as expected & it may just be he needed the run.
With his reappearance under his belt & conditions to suit, he holds very strong each way claims.
Tips
PLACED – Back Katiymann (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 8.00 Betfair BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
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