It’s the big one, the Epsom Derby, with 13 3 year old colts battling it out over 1 mile 4 furlongs.
Like yesterday’s Oaks, this is a very open race with no standout contender. Making it harder is the fact that Aiden O’Brien saddles over half the field; picking the best of his crop is a task in itself.
Favourites
O’Brien saddles the favourite in Sir Dragonet who was very impressive at Chester when beating Norway by 8 lengths. That win wasn’t exactly expected so there’s a big question of whether he’ll build on that especially as he looks a soft ground horse.
The 2nd of O’Briens is Broome and he too looks opposable. He put himself firmly in the picture for this when an 8 length winner of the Ballysax but then made hard work of the Derrinstown when very short odds. He seems to lack tactical speed which will be an issue in a race like this, having been pushed along over 3 furlongs out last time out and taking time to pick up before winning relatively easily.
The leading English hope is Telecaster who won the Dante. Previous to that he’d only raced twice, both times in maidens this year. His draw in 2 is a concern as well as the trip so he’s another to take on.
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Contenders
Another with stamina concerns is Madhmoon. Over 10 furlongs, he’d be the selection judged on his excellent 4th in the 2000 Guineas from a poor draw but the trip will almost certainly be his downfall.
Bangkok won his maiden this year when beating Telecaster but the form of his Classic Trial win at Sandown has taken some serious knocks, whilst Circus Maximus sports first time cheekpieces and would prefer softer ground. Japan needed the run in the Dante but didn’t show enough to suggest he’ll find the required improvement to win a Derby.
Betting
All of this leads to thinking Anthony Van Dyck is this year’s Derby winner. The mount of Seamie Hefferan, he’s the top rated runner in the field yet isn’t in the first 3 in the betting market. He brings top class 2 year old form to the table, where he won the Group 2 Futurity, was 2nd in the Group 1 National Stakes and 3rd in the Group 1 Dewhurst, where it was evident 7 furlongs was on the sharp side and he’d need middle distances.
He’s had one run back this term, where he won the Lingfield Derby trial. The quality of the opposition may not have been strong but he did it well despite being in need of the run and having to race on unsuitably soft ground. His trainer, Aiden O’Brien, had said before that run that ‘he’s just ready to start and we expect he will improve plenty for the run’ so it would be no surprise, back on faster ground, to see him come home in front. Form at Lingfield is no bad guide to acting on this track as shown when Anapurna, the Lingfield Oaks heroine, landed the Oaks yesterday so here’s hoping the Lingfield Trials winners can land the Classic double.
Tips
WON – Back Anthony Van Dyck (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 9.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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