The 3rd of the Classics and this is the one for the girls, the Investec-sponsored Oaks over 1 mile 4 furlongs held at Epsom.
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Preview
14 runners go the post and this looks as open an Oaks as ever where a case can be made for most of the field. Aiden O’Brien and John Gosden are the trainers to follow, with them being jointly responsible for the last 5 winners of the race. O’Brien runs 4, Gosden 2 and their fillies currently occupy the first 3 places in the betting.
Favourites
The Gosden pair are headed by Mehdaayih who was supplemented for this after winning the Cheshire Oaks in impressive fashion. She hosed up by over 4 lengths but that was on soft ground and she may have been flattered by that run. His other runner is Anapurna who was similarly impressive in winning the Lingfield Oaks trial by over 6 lengths but similar concerns remain over the ground.
Pink Dogwood is the O’Brien first string and is vying for favouritism having won the Listed Salsabil Stakes on her last start but, following a similar trend, is the ground going to be too lively for her today? Of the market leaders, Maqsad is possibly the most likely to relish the ground and she won the Pretty Polly well at Newmarket but even her trainer is suggesting the additional 2 furlongs could be a problem, especially with the O’Brien challengers likely to make this a stiff test.
Manuele De Vega is hard to dismiss on her 2nd to Mehdaayih where she needed the run and didn’t have the smoothest of passages but her draw in stall 1 is offputting.
Betting
That brings us to the longer priced horses and it’s a case of going ‘all in’ with Aiden O’Brien. He has won the other 2 Classics this seasons and neither of those were the stable’s 1st string. 4 of the last 8 winners of this have won at big odds, 3 at 20/1 and 1 at 50/1, O’Brien being responsible for 2 of those whilst there’s already been horses placed at 66/1 and 33/1 in the 2 Classics already run this term.
The first of the 3 is Peach Tree ridden by the trainer’s son, Donnacha. Out of Galileo, who is responsible for 3 of the last 4 Oaks winners, she’s sure to stay. She raced 6 times as a juvenile and her most eyecatching run was on his last 2 year old start where she trotted up in a Listed race over a mile beating one of today’s rivals Tarnawa. That rival turned the tables on Peach Trees only run this year when the selection was less than 2 lengths back in 4th in the Group 3 Blue Wind. However, she will come on for that run, the additional 2 furlongs is in her favour and the better ground sure to suit. Quotes of 28/1 underestimate her chances.
In front of her that day was another of O’Briens runners in Delphinia. I’m sure Peach Tree will turn the tables as Delphinia had a fitness advantage but you can’t back one and leave the other out of calculations. Again, the additional quarter of a mile will suit as she’s another out of Galileo. It wouldn’t be surprising if even this test was a bit sharp for her so it’s likely she’ll make the running in a bid to make it a true stamina test and run the finish out of her rivals. There are worse 50/1 shots out there.
Finally, we side with O’Briens 4th runner, Fleeting. Ignoring her one run this term, odds of 33/1 are insulting. She’s the joint 2nd highest rated runner in the field and, over the winter, was considered the trainer’s best shot at winning this race after winning the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster. On her one start this season, she was last in the 1000 Guineas but fitness and trip hardly make that a surprise. This is her first start beyond a mile and again, on breeding, she should improve a bundle for this trip. For the superstitious amongst us, Qualify won this race at 50/1 in 2015 for this yard after finishing last in the 1000 Guineas before coming here for her first run beyond a mile. Let’s hope for a repeat today.
Tips
Back Peach Tree (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 29.00 Sky Bet BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
PLACED – Back Fleeting (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 51.00 Sky Bet BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back Delphinia (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 Sky Bet BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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