It is not just in England where it is Classics time, it is the same over in the US where the 2019 Kentucky Derby will be run on Saturday evening. Much of the world’s attention will be on one of the biggest races in the global calendar and we are no different. Here is our full preview of the big race from across the pond.
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23.50 Churchill Downs
Preview
10 ten to midnight here in UK. Saturday 4th May. It’s time for the world to descend on Louisville in the US for arguably the biggest horse race in the world.
It’s the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby, also known as the ‘run of the roses’ and quoted by many as the greatest 2 minutes in sport.
This is a 10 furlong race for the 3 year old boys. The race takes place at Churchill Downs, a track noted for its sharp turns which makes early positioning critical. Those runners drawn wide have a tough task, for certain, whilst those low need to break quickly or risk being shuffled to the back of the field.
What’s key in this race is that you have good recent form, a win in one of your last 2 races is a must with most recent winners having won last time out. Form at the highest level is important, suggesting that any with a win at either Grade 1 or Grade 2 level should be discounted, whilst the last 9 winners had all recorded a RPR of at least 112 on their most recent outing.
Good recent form is critical in this race with the last 9 winners finishing in the first 2 last time out, mostly in a Grade 1, with the last 8 all winning. All of them recorded a RPR of at least 112 on their most recent outing.
Favourites
The 3 at the head of the market are all trained by Bob Baffert. The main hope is Game Winner and his chance is obvious. He won all 4 starts as a 2 year old but has twice finished 2nd this term, once behind Roadster who he faces again, and once against Omaha Beach who was favourite before being withdrawn. Both times he raced wide and his performance can be upgraded. A horse that will be suited by the trip, he will go well but at the odds, it’s hard to be confident especially with a wide draw in 15.
Roadster is another of the Baffert trained runners but he too has a tough draw in 16 and it’s hard to see him confirming places with Game Winner here.
Contenders
Improbable is the 3rd one of his trio and the one with the best draw, in box 6. Like Game Winner, he was unbeaten at 2 and has been 2nd both starts this term. The concern is that he doesn’t appear to be crying out for this extra furlong.
It was hard dismiss Tacitus who is unbeaten in 4 starts and has won a pair of Grade 2’s already this term. He looks sure to stay, has a decent draw but the worry is that his hold up style is not ideal in a race like this and could see him with too much ground to make up.
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Betting
The main fancy here is Maximum Security who is drawn in 8 and is the most likely to make the running should War Of Will fail to break quickly from stall 1. Prominent types have fared well recently in this so that’s a positive as is the fact he’s 4 from 4 including the Grade 1 Florida Derby last time out where he kept on very well, making all to score by over 3 lengths. He recorded a very decent RPR of 117 that day.
Talking of the Florida Derby, the 3rd horse Code Of Honor is not without a chance. The race wasn’t run to suit that day with him being the only one of the horses not on the front end to get anywhere near the front 2. He was still 6 lengths back but cannot be dismissed if he sits a little more handily this time, especially if you consider his easy victory in a Grade 2 on his penultimate run.
The 3rd horse that has a chance at a decent price is the improving Be My Standards. He’s drawn 3 and won the Louisana Derby last time out, a Grade 2. Recording a RPR of 112, many US pundits are talking up his chances and provided he builds on that last run, he should be in the mix at the business end.
Tips
WON – Back Maximum Security (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Ladbrokes (⅕ odds 1-4)
PLACED – Back Code Of Honor (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 15.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back it here:
Back Be My Standards (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 21.00 Skybet (⅕ odds 1-5)
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