11.12 Churchill Downs: Kentucky Oaks
To get us in the mood for the “greatest 2 minutes in sport, the Kentucky Derby” on Saturday, we have the big race for the girls, the Kentucky Oaks. Whilst it may not hold the same prestige as its big brother, it is still a top quality race in its own right with the most decorated winner in recent times being the 2009 horse of the year, Rachel Alexandra.
The race is for 3 year old fillies only, and they race over 9 furlongs on the dirt at Churchill Downs, a typically sharp & turning US track.
The draw can be all important here as you’re never that far from a sharp bend; drawn on the inside means you need to stay out of trouble & get a good early position whilst, conversely, you quite often have to use up loads of energy if drawn wider out.
Looking at recent renewals of the race, the last 6 winners had all run well last time out, finishing either in the top 3 in the Group 1 & top 2 in the Group 2. Extending that further, every one of them was well fancied for that run, starting at 7/2 or less, indicating form running a bit deeper & that the performance wasn’t a fluke. Lastly, all of the 6 had recorded a RPR of at least 107 in one of their last 2 races.
Only one of the last 6 winners had gone off favourite, Untapable winning at Evens. The other 5 started at a mix of prices ranging from 4.7/1 right up to 39/1.
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So, what of this field? I had narrowed the race down to 3 horses & they are all amongst the 4 that tick all the trends above in respect of recent form, price last time out & RPRs. 2 of the 4 qualifiers are disputing favouritism at around 5/2. The first of these is Monomoy Girl who comes here with a tall reputation having won 5 out of her 6 starts, including the Grade 1 Ashland last time out. She really could be the next big thing but equally I think there are a few doubts that make me want to oppose her. Firstly, she has the widest draw & I think she’s a better horse racing up with the pace. She’s only last one race but they was by a head in her only close race so there are question marks over her durability in a finish & finally, there’s a bit of wet weather around & it’s anyone’s guess what she’ll be like on a sloppy track. I admit that I may be clutching at straws but there’s enough to make me want to take on this 5/2 shot.
Of the 2 market leaders, I’d prefer to be on Midnight Bisou who has won 3 Graded races on the spin this year including a Grade 1 in the Santa Anita Oaks. She likes to be held up so her draw in 10 is no issue & she has the excellent Mike Smith doing the steering. She also has form on a wet track but my concerns are 2-fold; will she get too far back &, like Monomoy Girl, what is she like in a finish having twice failed to get up by a nose.
Whilst I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see either of the front 2 win, I’m going with 2 bets in the search of some each way value. The first of these is Coach Rocks who is drawn in box 2. Last time out, she won the Gulfstream Park Oaks beating another of today’s rivals along the way, Take Charge Paula. The pair came miles clear of the 3rd & recorded excellent RPRs in the process so the form looks rock solid. It did admittedly take her until her 8th start to finally win but she did in style before following up in that Gulfstream Park race. She is definitely on the upgrade & the jockey that has ridden her in her 2 career wins remains in the saddle. Bred to appreciate the slightly longer trip, I fancy her to go close if she can get a decent early position from her inside draw.
The filly beaten into 2nd on Coach Rocks’ last win, Take Charge Paula, is our 2nd selection. Yes, she was beaten by a length and a half that day but she’s a crazy price to turn the tables especially as, visually, she lacked focus around the final turn when fading before picking up well again. The yard turn to blinkers for this race & that could make all the difference. She clearly has plenty of tactical speed & may well have held off the winner last time out were it not for the mid-race issues. She’s got form on a sloppy track & is another with a big race jockey on board. Drawn in 9 isn’t a huge concern & she’s going to be hard to keep out of the frame.
Of the others, I’d worry about Rayya coming over from Dubai. She appears to be overrated on her run behind Mendelssohn last time out whilst My Miss Lilly takes a steep rise in class & has already finished quite a way behind Take Charge Paula in receipt of 4lbs. Chocolate Martini could be anything & may take a hand whilst Eskimo Kisses is closely matched with her but has over 5 lengths to make up on Monomoy Girl on their Ashland race.
Back Coach Rocks (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 BetVictor (1/5 odds 1-3)
Bet here:
Back Take Charge Paula (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 Ladbrokes (⅕ odds 1-3)
Bet here:
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