The last of the mainstream Guineas races takes place on Saturday evening when the girls line up at the Curragh for the 1000 Guineas with all eyes on Aidan O’Brien’s team to see if they can land the female version after the male race went begging on Friday.
15 runners are scheduled to go to post for the latest classic of this fast and frantic season and we’ll be looking to continue a record of a return in every classic so far in this campaign. Here is our full race preview and selections.
7.15 Curragh
Favourite
It’s the turn of the girls for the 2nd Irish Classic of the weekend, the 1000 Guineas over 1m mile. It has attracted a bigger field than the boys equivalent, 15 runners in all, & a low draw might be advantageous.
Jessica Harrington saddles the favourite in Albigna and, on her Prix Marcel Boussac Group 1 win, she’s the one they all have to beat. The slight concern is that she ran poorly on better ground on her previous start in the Moyglare so that might be the angle with which to take her on.
Contenders
So Wonderful has some very good form for Aiden O’Brien despite still being a maiden but she’s fully exposed and there must be one or two that’ll improve past her. The nearest market rival to Albigna is another of O’Brien’s in Peaceful but her form has been on easy ground & she was behind Ridenza, who reopposes here, on their respective debuts. Fancy Blue goes for Donnacha O’Brien and she’s 2 from 2 but that form isn’t that great to justify the relatively tight price.
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Betting
There are 2 at bigger prices that cannot be written off. The first of those is New York Girl for Joseph O’Brien who had a good day at the Curragh on Friday getting off the mark since the restart with a couple of nice winners. She was 4th on debut when not getting the clearest of runs but then won here beating a solid yardstick in A New Dawn, leading late on over 7 furlongs.
That win was on heavy ground and breeding strongly suggests she’ll be better on better ground which she’ll get today. The vibes are that she’s wintered very well indeed and, whilst she will likely stay further & could be one of the Oaks, she’d need to go close here if those lofty targets are to be reached.
The 2nd selection is Harrington’s second string Valeria Messalina who has been completely overlooked in the market. She likes to race prominently and has a nice low draw from which to get a good early position.
She won well on debut before stepping up into Group company when a neck 2nd to Rose Of Kildare in the Oh So Sharp at Newmarket. It’s worth noting that she finished 5 lengths in front of Final Song that day and that rival went on to finish 5 lengths behind Love in the English Guineas equivalent last week (she was only 1 length off 2nd place).
Taking that form literally, she’d be in the top 2 or 3 in the market and not the big price she has now. After only 2 runs, there should also be a load of improvement to come and she rates as a big danger to all.
As our record in the 5 Guineas run so far includes 4 2nd placed runners at odds of 9/1, 12/1, 14/1 and 20/1, it’s probably worth risking a point in stake at one of the 2 selections filling that same position here.
Tips
PLACED – Back New York Girl (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 17.00 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (1/5 odds 1-4)
Back Valeria Messalina (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 26.00 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (1/5 odds 1-4)
Back them here:
Back New York Girl to finish 2nd for a 0.5/10 stake at 11.00 Skybet
Back Valeria Messalina to finish 2nd for a 0.5/10 stake at 15.00 Skybet
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