We are a week away from the flat racing season officially commencing in the UK but they are a week ahead of us over in Ireland with the campaign getting underway at the Curragh on Saturday afternoon with a decent card.
The highlight of that is the Irish Lincoln where there is a huge field going to post. We’ve gone through the race card and pulled out a couple for the big race and then another on the undercard later in the day.
3.25 Curragh
Preview
The first big handicap of the season comes in the shape of the ultra competitive Irish Lincoln where we have a maximum field of 27 running over the mile track at the Curragh. With all the recent rain about, the ground will be soft and may even have some heavy in the description. The biggest priced winner in the last 11 years has been 16/1 with 8 of those going off in single figures, suggesting it pays to focus on those towards the top of the betting. The draw has also played an important part with those drawn low to middle favoured, unsurprising given the right handed turn the runners need to negotiate, and, whilst recent form is a plus, last time out form isn’t necessary with only 1 winner since 2007 having won on their most recent run.
Favourites
In contrast to the Irish domination over the jumps, particularly at Cheltenham, it’s the British who are in the focus here with Boughey & Haggas sending over 1 runner each, and they are currently sat 1 & 2 in the market. It’s hard to knock the form of the progressive Highly Charming who has 3 of his last 5 starts, most recently a heavy ground handicap win, and whilst Colin Keane has been booked for the ride, an 8lb higher mark is slightly offputting. Lattam is an interesting contender with his trainer saying he decided on this rather than the British equivalent race run at Doncaster a week later as he would be guaranteed his ground. The form of his 2 handicap runs is average at best and his hopes are firmly pinned on the ground bringing about lots of improvement.
Betting
I’m taking 2 against the field, with the first of those being Emporio. His draw in 21 is just about manageable but other than that niggle, his claims are solid. Quite often you’re looking for a stakes horse in a handicap & we may have one here. 2 years ago he was considered good enough to take his chance in the Irish 2000 Guineas and he ran more than respectably on identical ground to this, finishing 5th of 11 in front of the likes of La Barrosa, Monaasib and Wembley. After winning on reappearance last year (after 425 days off), he ran in a top class Premier handicap at Leopardstown finishing well when 4th of 18. He could be marked down as a little unlucky as not much went right for him but it was good to see him back up his excellent form on genuinely soft ground. He was then 2nd of 12 in a Listed race on soft, before signing off when 2nd to reopposing rival, Cosmic Vega on heavy at Naas. He’s 2lbs better off with that rival of just over half a length, and also has a good 7lb claimer on board today which is another plus.
It’s hard to not include an Ado McGuinness selection as he loves to target this race and this year is no different as he saddles more than a quarter of the field. The one I like is No More Porter, who is having his first run for the yard since leaving John James Feane’s a couple of weeks ago. He has a nice draw in 14, goes on any ground, is versatile trip but most importantly, loves the Curragh and these big fields. His record in handicaps of 17+ runners reads 1/30, 2/27, 4/18, 3/17, 7/25 and 2/20, all of them coming here at the Curragh. His only other run here also resulted in a win when 1st of 13 under today’s rider, the only time he’s been on board. His mark, whilst a tad higher than those runs last year, remains in the right ballpark given he’s off 85 today and his last win was off 80 and those big field places were all off 84. He likes to race prominently so should be able to get a good early sit and knowing he has tactical speed having won over 6 furlongs here, he might be difficult to pass.
Tips
Back Emporio (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-7)
Back No More Porter (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
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5.37 Curragh
Preview
Our final bet comes in the closing race at the Curragh, a 19 runner handicap over the straight 6 furlongs. There’s always a bit of a dilemna with the draw but it’s probably safest to side with the lower drawn runners which puts me off the fancied Conversant and Hot Sunset. The favourite is Cnodian and she ran some good races here last term on this type of going so cannot be written off. Having said that, a rising mark without being in the winners enclosure is offputting. Mogwli won this last year so will be well supported whilst Pretty Boy Floyd and Queens Pardon both like soft ground and are drawn in the lowest 2 stalls.
Betting
Drawn in 6, I’m taking a chance of Senor Carrots. The most unexposed in the field with just 6 starts to date, he’s mainly plied his trade on the all weather at Dundalk. After a couple of runs on turf, including when 5th in a maiden on rain softened ground, he’s run well enough at Dundalk to give him claims here. He ran 4th of 14 over 7 furlongs when a bit short of room and then improved after a slow start over this trip to finish 5th of 12 when finishing as well as any to be just over a length down at the line. Sent off favourite on his most recent run, he tried to make all over a mile but the trip and the fast pace put paid to his chances and he faded badly a furlong out. It’s an interesting move to drop him in trip and run him back on turf but I think it could be a masterstroke. His mark looks very attractive, now down to 66 having run well off a few pounds higher, whilst his RPRs on the AW back it up, having posted 3 figures in the mid to high 70s. At double figure odds, he ranks a good each way bet.
Tips
Back Senor Carrots (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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