It is a huge day of horse racing in the UK and Ireland on Saturday with the final classic of the season the headline attraction as the St Leger is run up at Doncaster while over in Ireland it is Champions Weekend with some tasty races.
We’ve had a good look through both cards and the Leger doesn’t look like much of a betting heat however there is one on the Donny undercard we like and also a bet in that decent card over in Ireland to get stuck into as well.
2.25 Doncaster
Preview
Ahead of our Group 1 bet, I couldn’t resist a crack at the big handicap at Town Moor, the Portland run over a trip just shy of 6 furlongs. 22 runners, 6/1 the field, where do I start? Last week’s Haydock winner, Shagraan, is the most likely starting point but a 3lb penalty isn’t ideal as this is miles more competitive & there’s better value elsewhere. American Affair wasn’t far behind the winner then & it would be no surprise to see him turn the tables but I’m venturing further down the market in search of some proper each way value. Vintage Clarets could go well if Mr Spencer finds a clear passage from the rear whilst Aberama Gold’s record at Donny make him of interest.
Betting
Walbank is a bit of a dark horse not to be dismissed but I’ve fallen on the side of Bergerac. He’s a really good sprinter who can throw in a stinker but is often there or thereabouts. In the last 3 seasons, he’s raced almost exclusively in handicaps off marks ranging from as low as 85 to a high of 98. He gets in off a mark of 90 & that looks ideal as this horse seems to have a genuine ceiling. Off marks above 91, his form reads 1 win & just once more in top 4 from 15 runs but conversely, off 90 or lower, that is transformed to 4 wins, 6 more in top 4 from just 16 runs. Fast forward to the last 12 months & that form at or below his ceiling reads 0-2-1-1-8-1. Since winning the Gosforth Park Cup at Newcastle 3 starts ago, he’s remained in top form, running well twice at York. He was 5th in the Skybet Dash & then ran a cracker in the Symphony Group Handicap in finishing 6th of 22 behind a couple of these. What’s so eyecatching is that 6 of the first 7 home were drawn 8 or lower & my selection exited from stall 19. He won his race in the near side, coming home in front of 10 others but that’s seen his mark drop by 1lb. A repeat of that effort will see him go very close indeed at an excellent each way price.
Tips
Back Bergerac (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-6)
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3.25 Leopardstown
Preview
I’m so disappointed with the turnout for the final classic of the UK flat season, the St Leger. With just 7 runners & Aiden O’Brien saddling the 1-2-3 in the market at Doncaster, I’ve decided to skip that race & head over to Ireland for Champions Weekend for our Group race bet today. The Irish Champion Stakes hasn’t attracted a much bigger field with just the bare 8 runners but it’s quality all the way. It says a lot when Auguste Rodin is in the race but is not currently showing as favourite. That honour goes to Economics who has been priced up on his undoubted potential. After scooting clear in the Group 2 Dante, he then went to Deauville & won a Group 2 there but this is a whole different level &, in my opinion, he’ll have to improve plenty here. Auguste Rodin can never be written off but he’s as likely to run a poor race as he is to run a good one. He was brilliant in the Prince of Wales at Ascot 2 starts ago but followed that with a tame effort in the King George last time out. At the prices, he’s not for me. Ghostwriter has been ultra consistent at the highest level in 4 starts this term but 3rd or 4th where he usually finishes & I think that’s likely again. Japanese raiders can never be written off but, whilst 16/1 is a nice price, I cannot back Shin Emperor with confidence given we’ve yet to see him race outside of his homeland.
Betting
The second string of O’Brien’s, Los Angeles, is the one for me. Admittedly, the Arc is his big target but the yard doesn’t send them in races like this if they don’t hold every chance. Another quarter of a mile may be preferable but he has already shown he has a good mix of speed & stamina so I’m not sure that could be given as an excuse. His form is as good as any in this field; after winning on debut in a maiden, he won his only other 2 year old start when landing the Group 1 Criterium de Saint Cloud over in France, beating St Leger favourite Illinois into 3rd. He’s kicked on again this season. In between a Group 3 win in the Derby Trial here & a Group 2 win in the Great Voltigeur, he’s been seen twice in Group 1 company. The first of those saw him finish a more than respectable 3rd in the Derby behind City Of Troy before gamely poking his head in front to land the Irish Derby. Had it not been for the trip, I’d have made him favourite for this but he’s tactically versatile & with Hans Andersen & Luxembourg both likely to make this a truly run race, his reserves of stamina may actually be a benefit here. Provided 3 places are still on offer, he looks a cracking each way bet to nothing.
Tips
Back Los Angeles (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.50 Bet365 (⅕ odds 1-3)
