Bank Holiday Monday always brings about lots of racing and the focus is in Ireland with the big race being the Irish Grand National. We are taking 2 bets in that as well as 1 on the flat up at Redcar.
5.00 Fairyhouse – Irish Grand National
Just over a week has passed since Oneforarthur landed the Grand National at Aintree and now it’s the Irish equivalent at Fairyhouse over a slightly easier stamina test of 3 miles 5 furlongs. There’s still a big field of 30 runners, with Gigginstown Stud responsible for almost half the field.
The general profile of the winner here is a horse carrying a low weight who has run well at this track before. Big price winners are not uncommon either, with a 50/1 shot coming home in front 4 years ago and 3 winners at 33/1 in the last 10 runnings of this.
There are 2 that interest us at big prices and we are opposing the Gigginstown all out assault.
Bonny Kate – This likeable mare went off favourite for this 12 months ago but was pulled up 3 from home. However, she was only a 6 year old then and it takes a special horse to win such a competitive race at that age. She’s now a year older and this age group has provided 4 winners in the last 10 years.
She’s raced 4 times this season and looks to have been laid out for this, with the biggest worry being whether she needs softer ground. That is by means a given based on her form so far this term with arguably her best run being on the best ground she’s faced, even if that was yielding to soft.
She opened up this season by finishing 3rd in the Troytown and followed that up with a couple more 3rd placed finishes in the Thyestes and Punchestown Grand National Trial. Her last run was a bit disappointing when pulled up before the last in the Leinster National but she did run well for a long way there and may just need the extra distance now.
In her last 2 runs, she’s been a little isolated in her running and might be better in very big fields as shown in the Troytown. The 30 runners here should suit and it is interesting that she has gone off favourite in her last 3 runs in big handicaps so I’m more than happy to take the 28/1 on offer here.
Sambremont – This one has followed such a similar route to Bonny Kate that it’s impossible to back one and not include the other. His form may not be quite as good as Bonny Kate but he did finish in front of her 2 starts ago in the Grand National Trial.
He has raced 4 times this season too and has taken in 3 of the same races as our first selection, the only difference being that he ran in the Paddy Power as opposed to the Thyestes. She has not had the best of luck this term and that’s seen her mark remain largely unchanged.
In the Troytown, she was brought down before being pulled up in the Paddy Power after being hampered. His best run was in that Grand National Trial (the only time he’s gone beyond 3 miles this season) when he finished well from a long way back to snatch 2nd on the line. He was also pulled up last time out in the Leinster National but was twice badly hampered at fences and did actually run well for a long way.
He looks to be an out and out stayer, and the extra distance will surely suit. Connections believe he’ll handle the better ground and his low weight will be a big plus. The 40/1 looks much too big and we’re hoping for a big run.
Tips
Back Bonny Kate (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 29.00 BetVictor BOG (¼ odds 1-5)
Back Sambremont (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 41.00 BetVictor BOG (¼ odds 1-5)
Back them here:
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4.20 Redcar
Just a field of 11 for this Class 4 handicap over a mile at Redcar. This is a flat track that suits straightforward types and because of that and the fact this is run on the straight course, it is one of the hardest courses in Britain to make all at over this trip. That is interesting because many of these like to force the pace and it is likely the race will be set up for one of the closers. In addition, there appears to be question marks over several of the runners, not least their ability to produce first time out or ground concerns.
Hidden Rebel – She has top weight here and is a winner of 5 of her 23 races, finishing 2nd on a further 6 occasions. She races here off a mark of 86 which this 6 year old has never won off before but she has finished a head 2nd off just 1lb lower so it is thought this mark is well within reach.
She goes well for this jockey who has won twice from 5 rides on her and Class 4 seems to be the right grade for her. A current mark of 86 just allows her to sneak into this grade of race. She ran 10 times last season and her form in this grade reads 2-1-1 against form of 6-6-4-0-2-9-0 in higher grades. Her form has come on good or firmer ground too which is what she’ll get today, whilst her track form is equally impressive, with a win and 2 2nds from 4 tries here.
Connections have said that a fast run mile is ideal which is almost guaranteed here. She also doesn’t like to be crowded so a relatively small field of 11 coupled with a wide draw in 9 is again in her favour. Fitness should be guaranteed after she loosened up with a run on the all weather (her first try on the surface). That day, she was 4th of 6 but started slowly and wasn’t sure to like the surface so we can ignore that run.
In a race where most of her rivals have questions to answer, we are happy to take the 8/1 being offered.
Tips
PLACED at 17/2 – Back Hidden Rebel (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 Bet365 BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
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