It is a big day of racing in the UK and Ireland on Saturday with big races such as the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle and the Irish Derby at The Curragh the showpiece occasions up and down the land. There is also a decent card up at York too and we have picked out selections in all three meetings.
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5.15 Curragh: Irish Derby
Preview
The Irish Derby sees Saxon Warrior, the 2000 Guineas winner, on a mission to salvage his pride following his poor showing in the English version 4 weeks ago at Epsom. You could argue this track will suit better but he’s a skinny price & isn’t for me having not truly proved he stays the trip.
No such stamina doubts can be thrown at his main market rival, Dee Ex Bee, who was 2nd in the same race early this month. That makes him a decent betting proposition at around 4/1 but I’m a little worried that all his best form is on tracks with some quirks & this more conventional track may not suit. He’s also yet to prove he wants ground this quick.
The form of the Gallinule has promise but both Platinum Warrior & Latrobe has to step up significantly whilst I’m struggling to forgive Knight To Behold his Derby flop. Delano Roosevelt will surely bounce back at some stage but continues to disappoint & it’s got to a stage where people are just finding excuses.
Betting
Therefore, with doubts over the main contenders, I’m going to side with recent Royal Ascot winner Old Persian. He has to improve again but that’s possible given his top yard decided to supplement him for this race. He won the King Edward VII over this trip at Ascot beating Rostropovich & Delano Roosevelt. Many people say he was suited by the stop start pace which is possible but I’ll just say he was the best horse in the race ridden by the most tactically aware jockey. He looked to be suited by the trip & the jockey suggested he’ll get further, like the trip of the St Leger. His trainer said, however, he has the speed for this trip so will remain over a mile and a half for the time being.
There looks to be plenty of pace in the race so it should suit a true stayer & with firm ground a definite plus, he’s taken to continue his upward trajectory having won 3 of his 4 starts this term, improving from handicaps to listed events to a Group 2 last time. His first try at Group 1 level may just cap off a remarkable first half of the year.
Tips
Back Old Persian (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Ladbrokes BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
1.30 Newcastle: Northumberland Vase
Preview
The consolation race for the Northumberland Plate sees a big field bidding to land this valuable prize with recent Haydock winner The Grand Visir holding favouritism. Like Bedrock, another of the fancied runners, he’s drawn wide & has a penalty for a last time out win.
Main Bet
Instead, I’ll side with Dannyday who won this race 2 years ago. He’s drawn reasonably well in stall 7 & comes here from a yard in top nick with each of his last 3 runners winning (albeit at shortish odds). After that win 2 years ago which was his 2nd all weather win from 3 starts, he was off the track for 700 days & has been seen only twice since. He was 2 lengths 4th at Goodwood at a trip short of his best before finishing midfield in the big Ascot staying handicap over a trip too far. He was noted as going well & running a big race until stamina over the extra 4 furlongs gave in. Back at his best trip & racing off the same mark as those 2 runs, he holds a massive chance today.
Outsider
I’m also going for one at longer odds in Chocolate Box. This is a horse that continues to run well & deserves to land a big prize. This year, he started by winning a Class 4 all weather handicap by over 3 lengths off a 5lb lower mark & has twice run well over his revised mark since. The first of those was when 4th at Kempton before being unlucky when half a length 3rd at York, rallying late on. Interesting that after that all weather win, his jockey suggested he could go for the Northumberland Plate. Whilst he won’t win the main event, the consolation race wouldn’t be too shabby at huge odds.
Tips
VOID – Back Dannyday (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 7.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back it here:
Back Chocolate Box (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 23.00 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back it here:
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2.45 York
Preview
A Class 3 handicap over a mile with Kaeso & Voyager Blue at the head of the market. The former has won 5 of his 8 handicaps but failed last time out in this grade & is up another 1lb. Improving, admittedly, but he isn’t for me whilst Voyager Blue has won his last 2 but is 6lb higher & may struggle to dictate in a race with enough pace.
Betting
The top Northern yard of David O’Meara has 3 runners at York today, with 2 of them in this race. I want to have both on side, with the first being popular veteran Alfred Hutchinson. He’s a 10 year old now but has dropped back to a dangerous mark in the light of some acceptable efforts. He finished 4th in an amateur riders race 2 starts ago here over 7 furlongs when staying on well suggesting he needs this step back up in trop. His past form would suggest the same & similar comments would apply last time when 7th of 16 but only 3 lengths back when again finishing well. He is 3lb better off with Kaeso for less than 2 lengths & with the longer trip likely to suit our horse more, I’m expecting a big run.
Fayez is the longer priced of the pair but has sound enough credentials. He has top weight here but a decent claimer takes 5lb off his back. He finished 2nd at Ripon off 2lb lower in a higher grade than this 3 starts back before a close up 4th on the all weather off a 1lb higher mark where he didn’t get a clear run. That was over this trip. Last time out, he raced here over a quarter of a mile further than today & was again 4th, some 4 lengths back. He was caught out when the tempo quickened & didn’t appreciate the slowish gallop. A faster pace will suit &, with no stamina doubts, he could be picking them up late on.
Tips
Back Alfred Hutchinson (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
PLACED – Back Fayez (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 15.00 Bet365 BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
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