Bank holidays normally mean lots of racing that is low in quality and, whilst that is the case in the UK, the Irish Grand National is the culmination of a high class card over in Ireland at Fairyhouse.
We have bets in 2 races on Monday 28th March, taking a couple of big prices in the Irish Grand National and one in a handicap at the opening flat turf meeting of the year at Redcar.
5.00pm Fairyhouse: Irish Grand National
The first thing to note is that this race has seen shock after shock in the last 10 years, with 7 of those falling to horses priced at 20/1 upwards including 50/1 winner Liberty Counsel 3 years ago. The other key point is that those horses carrying light weights dominate proceedings with only 2 winners in that same 10 year period carrying over 10st6lb to victory. Additionally, 4 of the last 6 winners have previously won or been 2nd in a chase at this track, the 2 exceptions being 2 short priced winners. In summary, we are looking for a big priced horse, carrying a lightweight, with previous chase form at Fairyhouse.
Simply applying those filters would leave us with a shortlist of Unic De Bersy (50/1), Jarob (33/1), Portrait King (33/1), Ballyadam Approach (50/1) and Wrath Of Titans (20/1). It is from these 5 that our 2 selections come in the shape of Jarob and Ballyadam Approach.
Jarob is one of two Andrew Lynch runners and comes here carrying just 10st2lb with a handicap mark of 130. This is his first ever run in a handicap chase and he comes here unexposed, looking like he’s been laid out for this. In the early part of the season, he rattled up a hat trick of wins, 2 over hurdles and 1 in a beginners chase. All 3 of those wins were over a trip of just 2 miles 4 furlongs which is 9 furlongs short of what he faces here. It is interesting though to note the trainer’s comments after those runs where this race was mentioned specifically after each;
“I believe he’s a horse that could win the Irish Grand National one day”,
“I genuinely think he could be an Irish National horse one day”;
and “hopefully we’ll run him in the Irish National”.
The “one day” appears to be now, probably in a bid to exploit his lowly handicap mark.
He was then put away for the winter before returning over an inadequate trip of 2 miles over hurdles. He actually ran a race full of promise that day and that should have put him spot on for this. He needs good ground which he should get provided the rain stays away, whilst he’s long been thought of of needing 3 miles plus. Jarob may be a little inexperienced and there are some stamina concerns but that’s where the quote of 33/1 comes from. At rewarding odds, we’re prepared to give him a chance.
Our 2nd selection is Ballyadam Approach from the Terence O’Brien yard. He’s now an 11 year old but is still very lightly raced, having raced just 17 times, 9 of those over the bigger obstacles. He is, like Jarob, a horse that looks like he’s been campaigned towards this race and is stepping up in trip significantly. That said, he looks like he’ll be suited by this stamina test.
He ended last season winning 2 valuable handicap chases off marks of 115 and 123, the way he won those suggests a mark of 129 is well within his reach and his trainer has been careful to protect that mark by racing him just twice this season, the first over hurdles. He showed enough promise over an inadequate trip last time out and should come on bundles for that race. A price of 50/1 looks too big to ignore.
Of the others, Cause Of Causes has top weight following his win at Cheltenham but it would be a remarkable performance to win off his revised mark, shouldering 11st10lbs around here. Mala Beach has similar weight concerns whilst last years winner, Thunder And Roses, hasn’t been anywhere near his form of 12 months ago. Bonny Kate and Venetien De Mai look set to battle out favouritism but the ground may not be soft enough for either of them to continue their winning runs.
Tips – Irish Grand National
Back Jarob (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 34.00 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-5 BOG)
Back it here:
Placed (3rd) Back Ballyadam Approach (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 51.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-5 BOG)
Back it here:
3.45pm Redcar
A Class 4 straight mile qualifier with 16 runners currently expected to line up. The key to this race appears to be the ground, with soft ground looking guaranteed so we need something that will appreciate the underfoot conditions. Le Chat D’Or has been very well backed but is 2 years without a win so 4/1 looks too short. That said, he goes well early in the season, will love the ground and races off a decent mark.
However, at over 3 times the price, we are siding with the Jedd O’Keeffe trained Dark Ocean. He has never won off a mark this high but he improved through last season starting off by winning off a mark of 70 before further wins off 76 and 80. That suggests to us that 84 might not be beyond him. The key to our selection is soft ground and coming into the race fresh. He has won first time up for the last 2 years at prices of 11/1 and 3/1, whilst one of his other 2 wins came on the back of an absence of almost 6 weeks.
Graham Lee is booked to ride and he gets on very well with the horse, on board for all 4 wins (from just 11 rides). The record with other jockeys on top is 0 from 20. Lee also has a great strike rate when riding for O’Keeffe with a 1 in 5 win record.
All 4 wins have come at this trip and Dark Ocean is also dropped back to Class 4, as he’s never won in a higher grade. He ran 11 times last term, winning 3. Graham Lee was on board for 6 of those rides, his record being 1-3-1-4-1-8, whilst other jockeys recorded finishes of 3-5-5-3-6. The horse only faced true soft ground twice last season, winning off 8lb lower in this grade by over 2 lengths. The other run was his last start of the season, off this mark at Newmarket, where he finished a disappointing 8th. However, that could be ignored as it was in a Class 3 0-95 event and he raced too keenly throughout the race.
Whilst he’s no certainty off this mark, it appears that everything else is in his favour and 14/1 looks a very generous price for a horse we know will be ready to roll first time up.
Tips
Back Dark Ocean (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Coral (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
