Horse Racing – Leopardstown & Ascot Saturday 17th October Tips and Betting Preview

While the Champions Day at Ascot is the headline attraction on what is a decent day of racing on Saturday, there is an underrated card over in Ireland as well with a particularly appealing handicap late in the afternoon.

We have found a selection in that race as well as a couple that we like in the closer of the big meeting at Ascot in a bid to pick up a few quid of profit in a short space of time either side of the Irish Sea.

4.10 Leopardstown

Preview

A mile and a half handicap for 3 year olds awaits with 18 runners & several in with chances.  Favourite Son Of Hypnos has won his last 2 but his mark continues to rise whilst Jeff Kidder has less of a rise to overcome but only prevailed narrowly last time.  Knight Of Malta, Toora Loora & Loved Out are all just coming out of maiden company & none of the 3 looks that well handicapped.

Betting

The top weight, Camorra, is the bet for us.  He won on debut at 2 before being pitched into Group 2 company where he finished 4th of 5.  Whilst he was somewhat outclassed, he went off at odds of 6/1 so is clearly well regarded by his yard.  As a 3 year old, he’s been pitched in against St Leger winner Galileo Chrome so again has been highly tried but, in his last 2 starts at a more realistic level, has finished 3rd of 11 & 5th of 14 in handicaps off marks of 85 & 84.  He races off 84 today but his jockey claims 7lbs which may make the difference.  2 starts ago over this trip, when 3rd off 85, the front 3 came 5 lengths clear of the 4th so that form looks really solid & reverting to that trip (having been tried over further last time out) looks the right move.  The stable is in good form, he has a good inside draw & is now back racing in his own age category.  In a weak looking race, he rates a good each way bet.

Tips

WON – Back Camorra (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Betfair BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)

Back it here:

 


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4.15 Ascot

Preview

20 runners for another excellent renewal of the straight mile Balmoral handicap.  The favourite is the 3 year old Raaeq for Brian Meehan & Jim Crowley, who’s won 3 of his last 4 including an impressive 5 length beating of Breanski in a handicap here over a furlong shorter.  He’s looked impressive and could progressive into Group company but remember Lord North was turned over here 12 months ago before finding Group 1 success as a 4 year old.  King Ottokar has been well backed & it would be no surprise to see him run well here but he’s got a wide draw & I’m thinking low drawn horses might be favoured.  Tempus & Alternative Fact appear to have been overbacked whilst Ascot specialists Kynren & Raising Sand should run their race once again.  I’m taking 2 against the field here.

Betting

Njord is the Jessie Harrington raider & it’s unlikely she’d send a horse over if it didn’t have a genuine chance.  Tom Marquand is a good jockey booking but of more interest is his form in big field handicaps.  He’s run in 14 handicaps in the last 2 years, winning 4 and finishing in the places on a further 8 occasions.  10 of those runs have been in 14+ runner races so he’s proven in this sort of event.  He’s finished 2nd in 2 of his last 3 Premier handicaps off marks of 98 and was then a close 5th of 20 in the Irish Cambridgeshire off 104 where he may have won granted a clear run.  Last time, he failed to fire in a Listed race but he was wrong at the weights & would have preferred a bigger field.  Off 102 here, he must surely rank as a brilliant each way punt.

The second bet is Bell Rock and this one’s credentials are easy to pick out.  2 wins from 8 career starts and, since winning on reappearance in a Newmarket handicap off 98, he’s had 3 subsequent runs off today’s mark of 103.  He’s finished in the money in each, and you could argue they were 3 of the most competitive handicaps of the season.  6th of 23 in the Royal Hunt Cup, 3rd of 18 in the Unibet at Goodwood & then 3rd of 27 in the Cambridgeshire.  First time cheekpieces are enlisted, the Balding yard continues in red hot form & the champ, Oisin Murphy, continues in the saddle.  The other question mark is the ground but, assuming he handles it (and breeding suggests so), he must go well too.

Tips

WON – Back Njord (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.50 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)

Back Bell Rock (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)

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