The Craven Meeting is the big attraction in the racing world on Wednesday but having studied the card there isn’t a lot which stands out so we are going to park that until Craven day itself on Thursday and look elsewhere for our bets.
The last time we got involved in the racing over in Ireland we picked out two winners from two bets and with another card which is offering more betting opportunities than at Newmarket, we’re aiming to do exactly the same again.
3.10 Leopardstown
Preview
There’s nothing like a big field handicap over middle distances so 20 runners & a trip of a mile and a quarter is right up my street. At a turning track like Leopardstown, the draw can play a part especially if you need to be up there right from the get go. Twice raced Forbearance is the current favourite off the back of a maiden win at Dundalk, beating a subsequent winner. Her form is solid but this is a different kettle of fish & odds of 4/1 don’t appeal, especially with her wide draw. Melliferous has had just 4 career starts, all on the sand at Dundalk & slightly worrying is the fact she was stepped up to 2 miles last time out & seemed to relish the trip. That must leave a question mark back in distance here. Shamiyan is another who may need a stiffer test & has plenty to prove on his first start for almost 5 months whilst Pempie is in form but looks better on the all weather.
Betting
My selection here is Bring Us Paradise who himself comes here after a very good run at the all weather where he was a head 2nd over this trip & gets in here off exactly the same mark which could be crucial. He has a nice draw in 12 which should allow him to take up a good early position & an eyecatching jockey booking adds to the confidence. He was winless last year after moving from the UK but has plenty to recommend him, not least the fact his last run in the UK resulted in a near 5 length win in a handicap off a mark of 71. To be fair, the winning margin could have easily been double that & his mark, having been raised 11lbs for that, has gradually come back down & he’s racing today off just 72. One other thing to note is that his best form in the UK all came on good or better ground (all 3 wins on good or good to firm). On his second start here, he was 6th of 17 over this course & distance off 9lbs higher & since then, he’s raced on soft or heavy but has still recorded decent enough form figures of 5455, the first of which was when he was just over a length behind Irish Lincoln winner Layfayette. His RPRs only solidify his claims, with each of his last 5 turf runs seeing RPRs at least 5 higher than his current rating. With plenty in his favour, he’s rated as the best bet in this competitive heat.
Tips
Back Bring Us Paradise (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 BetVictor BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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5.30 Leopardstown
Preview
As if one big field handicap wasn’t enough, I’m chancing my arm at another; this time a 7 furlong race with 18 going to post. Mick Halford has the favourite in the shape of Roxette who easily landed a Cork handicap 11 days ago. She’s certainly improving but needs to handle much faster ground & an 8lb rise in the handicap. She could prove better than his mark but I’d be a little worried by the ground so feel it’s best to look elsewhere. Oh Purple Reign has flattered to deceive for so long now that I just cannot get involved but he did show his best form for a while last time up at Dundalk which there are question marks over this trip for both Midnight Fire who is better over 6 furlongs & Golden Valour, who probably needs further.
Betting
I’m siding with the 7 furlong specialist, Ice Cold In Alex. Let’s get the potential negative out of the way; he’s drawn wide in 16 but, as a hold up horse, that might actually be an advantage & allow himself to be eased into the race without worrying about getting himself blocked in. As for mark, the handicapper looks to have been incredibly lenient, easing him 3lbs. He’s now 4lbs below his last winning mark & 8lbs lower than his peak of last year. He’s a good ground horse & his form since winning his last start in 2018 on turf reads 32343-402364, all off marks in the 80s (off 77 today). His form over course & distance is 213 which fitness shouldn’t be an issue as his record fresh is 23034. Add to that, his RPR’s stack up, equalling or exceeding this mark on 14 of his last 15 starts, the only disappointment being when hampered exiting the stalls & never really getting into the race. Consistency is this horse’s strongpoint but at the same time, it hasn’t really helped his mark which has meant a long winless run. However, with the handicapper finally now relenting, this could be the time to catch him.
Tips
PLACED – Back Ice Cold In Alex (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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