Racing returns to France after the stoppage for COVID-19 on Monday and it does so with a fantastic looking card at Longchamp, where a number of trials for the bigger races to hopefully come later in the season will take place. Having not been able to bet on anything in Europe since the Virtual Grand National, we are not missing this opportunity and having scoured the lengthy card we have come up with bets in three of the 10 races.
11.55 Longchamp
Preview
The first of the French Guineas trials, this is the trial for the boys. There’s 8 runners in this Group 3 contest over a mile with the current 2000 Guineas favourite, Victor Ludorum, the odds on jolly here.
Andre Fabre’s charge is a winner of all 3 of his starts including the Group 1 Prix Jean Luc Lagardere at the back end of last season when finishing around a length in front of his 2 main market rivals here. He’s sure to be tough to beat but cannot be backed at the prices.
5th that day was Helter Skelter who was detached out the back for much of the race. He finished as well as anything & arguably may have troubled the winner if he had been given a more prominent ride. The worry here would be the pace element & whether the way the race panned out flattered him or not.
Betting
Instead, our first bet comes in the shape of the horse finishing one place in front, Ecrivain. He was beaten fair & square but didn’t get the best run up the inside. Despite that, he stayed on all the way to the line & he looks a solid yardstick, likely to keep reproducing. Previous to that, he won both his starts but his 2 year old campaign wasn’t straightforward. First up, he was miles back & looked to be struggling before coming from a mile back to get up close home. He then won a Group 3 in good style despite pulling very hard for the first half of the race. If he’s matured over the winter, he’s going to be a horse to fear in top races around this distance & he’s the best value here.
Devil has his supporters but has never been beyond 6 furlongs so the only horse that can get amongst the front 3 is Pisanello &, at the prices, cannot be left out. He beat the other 3 in this field yet to be mentioned on his last run in a Listed event at Saint Cloud. Despite the winning margin of a head, the result was more comfortable & his style suggests a return to softer ground will help. Previous to that he won over course & distance by over 6 lengths. He looks a straightforward type, is fit from that Listed win in March & looks a crazy price in a small field.
Tips
PLACED – Back Ecrivain (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 Bet365 (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back Pisanello (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 17.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-3)
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12.25 Longchamp
Preview
It’s the turn of the girls with the French 1000 Guineas trial next up, this time with 10 runners heading to the start.
The market suggests it’s a 2 horse race with Tropbeau, another Fabre hotpot, at the head of the betting. She won 3 last year before finishing her campaign with a 3rd in the Cheveley Park at Newmarket. Undoubtedly she has the best form in the book. Khayzaraan is her main rival, that’s because of her 2 most recent runs, winning both by a combined 13 lengths. This, however, is a massive step up in class & she’s yet to encounter ground like this.
Betting
Quiet Time is another to have won her last 2 starts, this was after losing on debut on heavy, running a stinker. Her 2 wins were both gained on the all weather so the best alternative to the front 2 is Dream And Do. After finishing 2nd on debut, she’s since won all 3 starts. The first of those was a maiden on soft over this trip but following up on similar going over a furlong shorter. She showed a lovely turn of foot that day, winning easily by 2 lengths. She then went on to land the Group 3 Prix Miesque over the same trip, always holding the runner up on the softest ground she faced. With conditions in her favour & having recorded a win in this grade, she’s the one most likely to topple the favourite.
Tips
PLACED – Back Dream And Do (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 9.00 Coral (⅕ odds 1-3)
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13.05 Longchamp
Preview
The good races keep coming and, next up, it’s the Group 2 Prix D’Harcourt over 10 furlongs where Sottsass, last year’s Arc De Triomphe 3rd, faces 8 rivals.
He should take the beating as he went from strength to strength last time, winning the French Derby & the Prix Niel. However, he did lose on his reappearance run when behind main market rival Shaman, so the question mark is whether he’ll be ready to go. He’s also back down in trip & the ground, whilst ok, probably isn’t ideal.
The 2nd favourite is Shaman who beat the favourite first time up last year. He’s one of three for connections & has some good form to his name, having finished 2nd to Persian King on similar ground in last year’s French 2000 Guineas. He then ran well 3 times in Group 1 company finishing behind Circus Maximus (twice) & Romanised. He disappointed on his last start, steps up to this trip for the first time & is a shade too short in the market.
Folamour & Soudania are the other 2 for Shaman’s connections. The first has been beaten in all 4 Group starts whilst Soudania has won 4 of her 6 career starts but is unproven on this ground. Syrtis is Godolphin’s sole runner and has never finished out of the first 2 but has been turned over on both his Group race starts, both when favourite.
Betting
The preference, therefore, is Simona, one of two fillies in the field who is in receipt of weight all round. She’s had 13 career starts so is experienced & has already been out twice this calendar year so her fitness is assured. Breeding strongly suggests we’ll see the best version of her the softer the ground gets so today looks ideal. After a mixed 2019, she won a 7 furlong race on her first start this term by over 6 lengths. She loved the mud that day. Then, she made all in a Group 3 over this trip on better ground, winning by a comfortable 2 lengths. Her action suggested a return to this ground would bring about further improvement & that bodes well for a horse that, on RPRs, is the only one in the field to still be on the upgrade having improved on each of her last 3 starts.
Tips
PLACED – Back Simona (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 12.00 Betfair Sportsbook (⅕ odds 1-3)
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