It is the final day of the Craven meeting featuring the Craven itself as well as the Tattersalls 3 year old Trophy and the Abernant Stakes. Landofhopeandglory and Foundation will be difficult to beat but none of the 3 races present good betting opportunities. Instead, we’ll head to the 16 runner handicap over 7 furlongs.
5.05 Newmarket
A good quality Class 2 handicap with a really competitive feel about it. The one that immediately took our eye is the top weight from the Richard Fahey yard, Heaven’s Guest. He is a 6 year old racing off a mark of 105, with a very interesting profile. His career record stands at 37 runs, with a 1 in 4 win rate (9 in total). In those 9 wins, he has landed handicaps off 100, 101 and 103, and won a conditions race and a listed race whilst rated 105.
He has already been out once this season when finishing down the field in the Lincoln but that was a seasonal reappearance over the wrong trip. Our selection won second time up last season but more importantly, is returned to his favourite trip off 7 furlongs. His record over this distance is 6 wins from 18 as opposed to 3 from 19 at other distances. He also has a distinct liking for ground on the easy side of good which is likely today.
The 7 furlong form of Heaven’s Guest cannot be underestimated, especially in handicaps with conditions to suit. If we ignore races in non-handicaps and also handicaps with over 20 runners, his record reads 1-0-1-1-3-9-3-1-0. The reason for ignoring very big field handicaps is that a premium is put on stamina and we feel that you’d need a horse proven over a furlong further; that seems to be the case when looking at his form.
He’s a winner of 4 heritage handicaps in the last 3 years, including the 2014 Bunbury Cup, so his form in competitive Class 2 handicaps is proven. Since winning his last handicap off 103 in July, he has had excuses. 3 runs outside handicap company, 2 at wrong trips and an 11th of 17 at Ascot off 2lb higher when handed the worst of the draw. Conditions are in his favour today and he should go well at a price.
Of the more fancied runners, Flash Fire has doubts on this ground and Supersta is almost certainly better on the all-weather. Mutamakkin could be anything and is probably too inexperienced for this, whilst Grand Inquisitor is climbing the weights off the back of some good placed efforts, not a profile we look for. Mujassam is hard to ignore from an in form yard and has plenty going for him but the fact Hanagan chooses to ride Mutamakkin is not a good sign. At the odds available, Heaven’s Guest represents the best value.
Tips
Back Heaven’s Guest (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 Boylesports (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
