Horse Racing – Pinstickers Guide to the Grand National 2017

Here’s our pinstickers guide to the Grand National, looking at each of the 40 runners, their current best odds and a ‘star’ rating (out of 3).

We’ll be back later with our final bets for the big race.

✮✮The Last Samuri (best price 18/1)

Top weight and still very progressive having won 5 of his 12 chase starts.  Finished 2nd in last year’s renewal and a suspicion that may have been his best chance, now racing off 12lb higher.  Has a good record over these fences having also finished a close up 3rd behind Vieux Lion Rouge in the Becher Chase in December.

✮✮More Of That (14/1)

Classiest horse in the race and a former winner of the World Hurdle.  Despite contesting the best races over fences (his last 3 runs have been in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Irish Gold Cup & the Lexus Chase), he’s still inexperienced over fences, hasn’t shown a liking for big fields and isn’t certain to stay this trip.

✮✮Shantou Flyer (66/1)

2nd last time out behind Cue Card in the Ascot Chase but he’s still only 7 years old and is another unproven over marathon distances.  He isn’t dismissed out of hand but may be better in another 12 months.

✮✮Perfect Candidate (50/1)

He’s never fallen and looks in decent nick, having won last time out.  He has been raised 6lbs for that win and didn’t get home on his only try over 4 miles.  Doesn’t look like this year’s perfect candidate.

✮✮Saphir Du Rheu (22/1)

Another high class horse but doesn’t look to be an obvious National type.  He arrives here off the back of a very impressive 5th in the Gold Cup but such a hard race is not ideal preparation.  Yet to race beyond 3 miles 2 furlongs so stamina would have to be taken on trust.

✮Roi Des Francs (66/1)

Hails from the top yard of Gordon Elliott but this horse looks to be weighted to the hilt and would surely appreciate softer ground.  He disappointed over the longest trip he’s faced to date; a National trial at Punchestown in February.  Has run 3 times in the last 2 months which I’m not convinced is ideal prep for this.

✮✮Wounded Warrior (66/1)

On the best of his early career form, he would have a good chance but he’s looks to be too high in the handicap for a horse that is, quite frankly, out of form.  It would be a major surprise if he could land this after 4 disappointing runs this season.  Stamina is again a question mark although connections believe he’s a National type who has been schooling well.

✮✮✮Wonderful Charm (40/1)

The ride of Katie Walsh and it would be great if this one could give her a good spin.  Pulled up in this last year off 5lb higher when the ground was probably too soft.  He arrives here in better form after just failing to get up in the Foxhunters last time out.  Well handicapped and if the better ground brings about improvement, could go well.

✮✮Tenor Nivernais (50/1)

Looks very well handicapped on this season’s form and is officially 10lbs well in.  However, his liking for soft ground as well as his suitability for the trip are the 2 elements of his profile that make him an unlikely winner.

✮✮✮Blaklion (14/1)

Nigel Twiston Davies has a good National record and this one looks to be in with every chance of improving his record.  He is 4lbs well in at the weights after a 3 lengths 2nd to Vieux Lion Rouge in the National Trial at Haydock in February.  Ran a big race in the Hennessey when 5th behind Native River too.  Profile looks ideal; 8 year old with a good racing weight who will like the ground and sure to be suited by the trip.

✮Drop Out Joe (66/1)

Won the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter but that was his last run after sustaining a serious injury.  Connections are just happy he’s made the racecourse again.  It takes a sentimental type to think he’s up to winning this after 286 days off the track.

✮Le Mercurey (66/1)

A 7 year old with a preference for small fields.  That puts me off instantly and I’m happy to go elsewhere in search of the big race winner.

✮✮✮The Young Master (20/1)

Ridden by Sam Waley Cohen who has a good record in the National, this horse comes here with a massive chance.  Won the Bet365 Chase last season on decent ground and has appeared to be better the further he travels.  Has raced 3 times this season and has protected his mark well.  Fell in the Becher in November which isn’t ideal but that was his first run of the season and has since had a spin over hurdles before running well at Cheltenham last time.  Laid out for this and should go well.

✮✮Cause Of Causes (16/1)

A big fancy for this after yet another Cheltenham win.  Whether or not that cross country win will have taken it out of this one is questionable.  The ground will suit and has got round in this before but I feel that he’s more of a Cheltenham type and his chances here are overestimated.

✮ Regal Encore (80/1)

Untried over marathon distances and has been pulled up in 3 of his 4 races when tackling the longest distances he’s encountered.  A very inconsistent type who will feel it’s a massive achievement if he completes the course.

✮✮Vieux Lion Rouge (12/1)

A major fancy for this after winning his last 2; the Becher and the Haydock National Trial.  Was 7th in this last year as a 7 year old so likely improvement now he’s a year older.  Would have to defy the number of runs trend, having only been seen twice (albeit both of those were big race wins).

✮✮Definitly Red (12/1)

Has a big chance and would be a great result for the North, coming out of the popular Brian Ellison yard.  Won the Grimthorpe on his last start in very taking fashion and should run a good race but has a tendency to clout the odd fence and fell on his only try over a marathon distance.

✮✮✮Ucello Conti (20/1)

Well fancied last year when 6th and has since finished a close up 4th in the Becher so has a liking for these fences.  Goes well in big fields and could prove to be better on this better ground.  Should go well.

✮Double Shuffle (50/1)

A 7 year old who has never gone beyond 3 miles.  A very likeable horse but I’ll save my money for other staying chases with this one.

✮✮✮Houblon Des Obeaux (50/1)

Of the bigger price, I like the chances of this one and think he’ll give Charlie Deutsch a good spin.  Has run in 4 top staying chases this season and has been placed in 3 of them at big prices.  There’s a potential ground question mark but I fancy him to outrun his odds in a race that will suit; a big field and a long trip.

✮Pleasant Company (14/1)

Has been in good form this term and is the mount of Ruby Walsh from the top yard of Willie Mullins.  No surprise if he starts a good few points shorter and could go off favourite but let’s not get carried away; he’s raced only 6 times over fences and that’s nowhere near experience to land this.

✮✮One For Arthur (14/1)

Won the big Warwick handicap chase on his last start but hasn’t been seen since.  The 84 day absence is offputting and whilst his close up run in the Becher was promising, an 11lb higher mark and the likely good ground will both scupper his chances.

✮Ballynagour (80/1)

Now an 11 year old and is Noonan’s first National ride.  He’s been pulled up on each of his last 3 starts and, despite being a former top class horse, he’s unlikely to be adding this to his CV.

✮O’Faolains Boy (80/1)

Formerly top class but not shown anything like his old form for some time now.  Seems to be a horse that has lots of problems and wellbeing and form make this one easy to pass over.

✮Highland Lodge (28/1)

11lb higher than when 2nd in the Becher in December.   He also won the corresponding race in 2015 so has a liking for these fences but he’s not run since then (126 days) and, whilst this has been the long term plan, there’s no substitute for race experience.  Not certain to get the trip either.

✮✮Bishops Road (66/1)

Would prefer softer ground and it was somewhat of a shame he missed out getting into the race last year.  Has dropped to a workable mark and could run ok for a long way.

✮✮Lord Windermere (50/1)

Gold Cup winner in 2014 who was pulled up in this 2 years ago.   Not sure about the trip but he will be liking the drying ground.  He isn’t totally ruled out but doesn’t exactly look the most obvious either.

✮✮Saint Are (33/1)

Comes here for his 4th try in this; 9th in 2013, 2nd in 2015 and pulled up last year.  He’s on a higher mark than each of those runs and isn’t getting any younger.  Reliant on the first time blinkers bringing out improvement which is not impossible.

✮✮Vicente (25/1)

Won the Scottish National last year so has a liking for the longer distances.  Remains on a decent mark and will like the good ground but hasn’t really shown enough form wise this term.  That said, his trainer has said this has been the plan and he’s now spot on.

✮Just A Par (50/1)

Moody type who finished miles back in this last year.  Definitely has 2 ways of running but hasn’t impressed over these fences in 2 attempts.  Might be better saved for the Bet365 Chase at Sandown.

✮✮Measureofmydreams (50/1)

Shown nothing in 2 runs this season and fell when favourite in last season’s Scottish National.  Previously, he finished 4th in the 4 miler at Cheltenham so definitely has the stamina for this, if not the form.

✮Raz De Maree (40/1)

2nd in this season’s Welsh National would put him in with a chance but is now 7lb higher in the weights.  Had a prep run over hurdles which isn’t a bad thing but he’s now a 12 year old so doesn’t have the ideal profile.  Finished 8th on his only National but jumped poorly that day.  Needs softer ground to have a chance.

✮Stellar Notion (80/1)

In good form but has a stiff looking mark and doubtful that he’ll stay the trip.  Ridden to last year’s winning jockey but unlikely he’ll be doubling up this year.

✮✮Rogue Angel (25/1)

The choice of Bryan Cooper from the Gigginstown raiders.  Won the Irish National last year and is trained by last season’s winning trainer.  Form has been a bit in and out this season but will get the trip and isn’t dismissed.

✮Cocktails At Dawn (80/1)

Raced once over these fences and fell, is out of form and has never won over 3 miles.  Hard to see him being good enough.

✮✮Thunder And Roses (33/1)

Won the 2015 Irish National.  Has been running creditably this season but has had a very heavy campaign and I’m worried that will take its toll here.  Bryan Cooper prefers Rogue Angel.

✮Gas Line Boy (80/1)

Raced in this 2 years ago and fell at the first so needs to overcome those demons.  4th behind Vieux Lion Rouge in that Haydock races and is on a stiff mark today.  Readily passed over.

✮Goodtoknow (100/1)

Has generally been in good form but has a career mark to overcome, was pulled up last time out and needs softer ground.

✮La Vaticane (125/1)

Looks a non stayer and doesn’t have any pieces of form in the book to suggest he’ll be anywhere near good enough.  Ignore.

✮Doctor Harper (80/1)

You’ll need to see a Doctor to be backing this one.  Out of form in the main and another on a career high mark.