We have moved into May and while the weather in the UK is taking a while to improve, that certainly isn’t the case for the flat racing action with the first classic of the year taking place at Newmarket on Saturday when the 2000 Guineas is raced.
Usually we would take a good look at what is a decent enough card on Saturday but given the weather, the soft conditions which has impacted the amount of runners, our focus is going to stay purely on the big race.
3.35 Newmarket
Preview
A disappointing turn out of just 11 runners for the first classic of the year, the 2000 Guineas, but that’s hardly surprising given the expectation that there’s a superstar in the line up in the shape of City Of Troy. Aiden O’Brien’s charge won 3 from 3 last term, including the Group 2 Superlative Stakes by over 6 lengths & then the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes by over 3 lengths. He looks the standout here but I’m not taking odds on about any horse on reappearance, with a host of rivals with untapped potential in opposition. Rosallion is his closest challenger according to the better & he comes here with good form in the book, namely with a French Group 1 win on his CV. Notable Speech & Noble Raider are the 2 that we know very little about with both having their first runs on turf & neither having run in Group company yet. Potential is the name of the game for them both but I’d prefer to focus on proven form. Alyanaabi has each way claims whilst Task Force could go well if he gets the trip; breeding suggests he will but I have my doubts having watched his races over 6 furlongs back.
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Betting
The each way alternative to the favourite is Ghostwriter who, like the favourite, has a 3 from 3 career record. He won a maiden here by over 3 lengths & then followed up in a novice race at Ascot when saddled with a 6lb penalty. He then took it up a notch when landing the Group 2 Royal Lodge over course & distance last September. He travels well & quickens but has stamina too & will definitely get further. I like a horse guaranteed to stay in this sort of race & he’s the one that won’t fail for stamina. The other thing to note is that his wins have come in truly run races & his Topspeed figures are as good if not better than all his rivals, with the notable exception of the favourite. If the favourite fails to fire or shows any stamina doubts, then this one is the most likely to take advantage.
Tips
Back Ghostwriter (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
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