There is plenty more racing to hopefully enjoy on Thursday if we can get through a day without meetings being abandoned before our bets run, and while we have a little wait for the next batch of top class stuff to arrive we can still get stuck in while we wait.
The race at Ripon and Bath in the afternoon on Thursday while there is a meeting at Leopardstown over in Ireland. There is also an evening card up at Stratford but it is the earlier stuff where we are focusing. We have bets in two races.
1.15 Ripon
Preview
A really competitive Class 3 handicap kicks us off where 11 head to the 6 furlong start. Nigel Tinkler saddles 2 of the market leaders, both of whom are last time out winners. Citron Major hadn’t been making waves & that had seen his mark drop to one where he ran out a winner over this course & distance on his last start. He’s been put back up 5lbs which is a worry, as is the jockey’s loss of his 3lbs claim. Roundhay Park also won for this yard on his most recent run but is, like Citron Major, back up 5lbs & also has a higher grade to contend with. Gunmetal is arguably one of the most frustrating handicapper’s in training. His losing run is up to 15 but he’s off a good mark that he really should be winning off. The worry is that we’ve said that before, many times. Similar comments apply to Staxton, another with a rapidly falling mark. He’s winless in 9.
Betting
The selection is the top weight Wentworth Falls. He seems to hold the most solid claims as he’s in form, continues to run well & seems to have his ideal conditions. He also has the beating of these, backed up by a 2.5 lengths beating he gave to Gunmetal last time out off the same terms as today & a near 5 length defeat of Citron Major previous to that. Revised terms suggest the pair will be closer but 4lbs shouldn’t be enough to turn the tables. Form wise, he was just over 1 length 5th behind subsequent Group 1 winner Oxted at the backend of last season and this season has continued in similar vein finishing 4th at Newmarket & 2nd at Ayr before winning comfortably at Doncaster before plugging on for 4th last time up at York off his new mark but in a higher grade. Eased in grade & with conditions to suit, it’s hard to see this consistent type out of the money.
Tips
Back Wentworth Falls (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 7.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
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2.00 Leopardstown
Preview
A big field handicap with 18 runners for horses rated up to 70. Tai Sing Yeh is the favourite & he’s been running well without getting his head in front but the worry is an inside draw for this hold up type. Conversely, Take My Hand has the widest draw & she’s a front runner.
Betting
Caesar’s Comet is the first of 2 bets for a yard in red hot form & he has solid claims here. He won here 2 starts ago off a much lower mark than this but, on past form, is still capable off his revised mark. He loves a big field having finished 4th of 17 3 starts ago before his win here in a 16 runner race where the front 2 pulled almost 5 lengths clear. Off his revised mark last time out, he was 4th of 18 at the Curragh over a slightly shorter trip. Back on a turning track, with a good 5lb claimer on top (won on him 2 starts ago), he should be bang there at the finish.
At a bigger price, I’m also siding with Bay Of Skaill too. She’s yet to win on turf but with 7 seconds from 19 starts including off marks higher than today’s, she’s still handicapped to go close. She’s drawn quite wide which I think may help given she often leads but, in a field this size, sitting just in behind might bring about improvement. At Limerick 2 starts back, she was travelling well 2 furlongs out but was just edged out inside the final furlong. She disappointed last time out but the ground was against her. Gary Carroll is back on board & he has an impressive record on board with 8 places from 11 starts on turf, including 5 of those seconds.
Tips
PLACED – Back Caesar’s Comet (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 6.50 Sky Bet BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back Bay Of Skaill (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 13.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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