No sooner does it feel that the flat season has started, and we have our first Classic weekend with the boys taking centre stage today for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Whilst that is the highlight of a super day’s racing, we also have flat meetings at Goodwood, Thirsk and Doncaster, with today seeing recommended bets in 4 races.
3.45 Newmarket: 2000 Guineas
Let’s be honest, this race revolves around Aiden O’Brien’s first string, Air Force Blue, and if he turns up in anywhere near the form of last season, he should win this easily. However, the application of a tongue tie is a concern and he’s not worth chancing at odds of 8/11 on his seasonal reappearance. That said, he is the most likely winner and I’m not going to take him on.
Instead I’m going for 2 in the ‘without Air Force Blue’ market as I’m not too sure we are surrounded with a high class string. Stormy Antarctic is probably the one to beat following his defeat of Foundation in the Craven but that came out of the blue somewhat and he’s no certainty to follow that up whilst Marcel, Gailileo Gold and Massaat are others with claims but are yet to fully convince me.
This race has the habit of throwing up the odd shock and it’s no surprise to see horses placed at ridiculous odds so I’m taking 2 in the shape of Herald The Dawn and Zonderland.
Herald The Dawn comes over from Jim Bolger’s yard and he is not in the habit of coming over to these shores for a day out. If he’s bringing a horse to Newmarket, it’s because he genuinely thinks it has a chance and I tend to agree with him with respect to this horse. 5 starts last season and he’s showed more than enough to suggest he could be in the mix. After winning a maiden at the 2nd attempt, he won the Group 2 Futurity Stakes at the Curragh before finishing 3 lengths back to Air Force Blue on ground a little too soft for him. His price is probably due to his last run in the Grand Criterium where he raced freely and wasn’t given a hard time. Our horse is a May foal and that normally suggests big improvement from 2 to 3. There seems to be no valid reason for the price on offer and, whilst he’s unlikely to turn over the favourite, he is the one I fancy to chase him home.
Our second bet comes in the shape of Zonderland and this one perhaps takes a little more imagination. He’s only raced 3 times and probably hasn’t shown enough to be involved but I was very impressed with his opening run on the all-weather last September where he quickened well in a small field to win by 5 lengths. He then went on to contest 2 Group 3 events and both times he ran with promise without quite being good enough. In the Tattersalls at Newmarket, he ran well before being squeezed at an important stage and may not have liked the roughness of the race at such an early point in his career. The ground on his final start was too soft yet he run another good race finishing close up in 5th. He looks the type to improve over the winter and, on the assumption he has, looks another big price.
Back Herald The Dawn (e/w) in the ‘without Air Force Blue’ market for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1-3)
Back Zonderland (e/w) in the ‘without Air Force Blue’ market for a 0.5/10 stake at 26.00 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1-3)
Back them here:
2.00 Newmarket
The opening race on the Newmarket card is a highly competitive handicap, the Suffolk Stakes, over 9 furlongs and this features a trio of lightly raced, unexposed types at the head of the market. Mutamakkin, Arthenus and Intimation are the 3 but none of them can be backed with confidence at odds of 5/1 or less in a 15 runner race. I’d prefer to go with a horse proven in this type of race and that comes in the shape of the top weight, Master The World.
He comes into the race off a mark of 104 but has some top handicap form to his name including a short head 2nd in the Cambridgeshire last October when looking all over the winner 1 furlong out before drifting badly late on. He’s now a 5 year old and last season he rose 11lb in the handicap which I feel is lenient considering some of the form he showed. That’s surely only as a result of winning just the once but I fancy he’ll put that right today. Since that 2nd in the Cambridgeshire, he has raced 3 times with a mixed bag of results. He’s twice been well held in pattern company but Group and Listed races may just be a step too far. However, back in handicap company, he ran a great race in 3rd in the Balmoral at Ascot on this sort of ground. That was a hotter race than this and he comes into this off the same mark. He also needed further than a mile and he gets that here.
He goes well here at Newmarket and the booking of Silvestre De Sousa is a massive plus, as he is on board for only the 2nd time. The other run was that Cambridgeshire race. De Sousa also has a 33% for the stable in the last 18 months which is impressive by anyone’s standards. Off a workable mark at a track he likes, I’m taking Master The World to at least master this field and get us off to a flyer.
Back Master The World (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 Betfred (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
2.50 Goodwood
Another Class 2 handicap, this time over 7 furlongs with 16 runners currently expected to line up. Lincoln is the favourite despite a run of 0’s to his name but each time appearing unlucky. His mark is rapidly coming down and he will strike at one point but a wide draw at this turning track doesn’t appear to time to back him, especially as contracting odds. He finished 11th at Haydock last week and, instead, at double the odds, I’ll take the horse that finished one place in front of him, Right Touch.
Right Touch is Richard Fahey’s only runner on the Goodwood card, making the long trip from North Yorkshire and it could be argued this is a tip in itself. He progressed last season, winning 3 big field handicaps off marks of 83, 89 and 93, and races off just 95 today with improvement still left in him. If you then account for his promising rider’s 7lb allowance, his mark is effectively reduced to 88.
Our selection will definitely come into the race fit and well after 2 disappointing runs this term but there appears to be genuine excuses for both of those runs. He finished 7th of 21 in the Spring Mile on his reappearance when he tried a mile for the first time. That run wasn’t without promise but the very soft ground probably put paid to his chances. Last week, he was out again at Haydock for a really competitive handicap over this trip and he failed to settle early. That said, he was in the mix until fading late on in a race where prominent types were disadvantaged. If he can settle better today, he should go close with his mark coming down a further 2lb.
Back Right Touch (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
5.45 Doncaster
Our final bet comes in the 6 furlong cavalry charge from the evening card at Doncaster. Many horses are in with chances but, in a big field with a good pace likely, I’m taking a chance on old favourite Mass Rally.
Admittedly, he’s a frustrating horse to win with but if he retains any of his old ability, he really should be up to winning this. He gets in here off a mark of just 83, something he hasn’t seen since his 2 year old days and he’s now a 9 year old. He was 108 rated in his pomp and there’s enough to suggest he’s not done with just yet. The key to Mass Rally is ground on the easy side of good (he’ll get that here) and a big field (18 runners here) as he likes to come with a late run off a strong pace. Paul Mulrennan is the usual pilot and he’s back on top for the first time in 6 races.
Looking through his recent form, since dropping to a mark in the 80’s, and there’s plenty to suggest he can run well here today. After finishing 4th, 3rd and 4th off 88 twice and 86 once, he finished 2nd of 21 over this course and distance on this ground in a Class 2 handicap (this is a Class 3) off 86. His last 2 runs weren’t as promising as heavy ground was against him on his last run last term. He then started off this season finishing midfield on soft ground here but it is interesting to note he’s always needed his first run and generally comes on a lot for it. It is therefore good to see his mark falling by fully 3lbs to a lowly 83. If today isn’t the day, it’s probably the time to bid farewell to the racecourse for this likeable 9 year old.
Back Mass Rally (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 9.00 Betfred (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
