SAT 12TH MAR
Despite being just a few days away from the best week of jump racing all year, there is a superb flat card on the all-weather at Wolverhampton. The feature is the listed Lady Wulfruna Stakes but we also have 2 very competitive 0-105 rated handicaps, including the Lincoln Trial. All 3 of those races are previewed here and we have recommended a bet in each.
2.15pm Wolverhampton
The Lincoln Trial Handicap generally has no bearing on the outcome of the Doncaster race at the start of the turf season but this always attracts a decent field, especially with £31K on offer to the winner. In the last 5 runnings, 4 of those has gone to one of the front 2 in the market and all 5 winners came here with a run already on the all-weather this winter.
The only 1 of the front 5 in the betting not to have run this winter is the likely favourite, Keystroke from the Jeremy Noseda yard. He’s having only his 4th career start here, and this is his first on the all-weather. He looks to have a stiff mark on what he’s achieved on the track and is priced up on his potential rather than confirmed ability. With so many question marks hanging over him (surface, fitness, handicap mark), he looks short at 7/2 against some seasoned handicappers.
Si Senor, Supersta and Bold Prediction are the 3 horses that come here with the best form figures and, whilst all 3 could go well, none appeal as being particularly well handicapped. Si Senor has finished 122 on his last 3 starts, going up 7lb in the process. He has never won in this grade and his highest winning mark is 87 (races off 94 today). Another negative in our opinion is that he has been hit by the handicapper, going up 2lb, for failing to win last time out and that type is one we always look to take on. Why would a horse win next time out off a higher mark if failing to get its nose in front off its lower mark? The positive is the jockey booking of Adam Kirby but that is largely offset by a wide draw in stall 12.
Supersta’s form figures read 113 and he’s another raised in mark for finishing a close up 3rd last time out. He also steps up markedly in grade with his 2 wins coming in Class 4 (this is a Class 2 handicap) and this is likely to prove a step too far for this in form horse. Bold Prediction is the 3rd horse with good looking form figures, finishing 121 on his last 3 starts. On the form book, he appears to have a solid chance, having won twice at this track and twice for today’s jockey, Luke Morris. He is a confirmed front runner and that’s where our main concern is as he is drawn wide in 10 and is unlikely to have it all his own way up top. A career record of 0 wins from 9 starts in this grade doesn’t bode well either.
The one that will carry our hopes is the current 2nd favourite, Intrude. He is an improving 4 year old and has an all-weather record of 3 wins from 5 starts, including 2 from 2 on the Tapeta here at Wolverhampton. As a confirmed hold up type, Intrude has plenty going for him today, nothing more so that the king of the fast finishers, Jamie Spencer, on board. He won a handicap here last September off 87 in a Class 3, finishing best of all down the outside, before being put away for 4 months. In his 3 runs this winter, he finished 6th twice, the first when needing the run and the second when Spencer said the horse was never travelling. Back on his favoured Tapeta surface last time out, he won off a mark of 89 when swooping late to land the spoils. That was a Class 2 handicap, like todays, where he has to defy a 3lb higher mark. Unlike many of his rivals, he has plenty in his favour and, with his trainer amongst the winners, we like his chances of landing of 3rd course success.
Back Intrude (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 7.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3, BOG)
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2.50pm Wolverhampton
This 7 furlong listed race, the Lady Wulfruna Stakes, has attracted a field of just 8 runners but there still appears to be a value each way bet to be had. The last 2 winners of this event, Sovereign Debt and Chookie Royale, line up here and they are the 2 at the head of the market.
The last 4 winners have all had a run in the last 45 days and 3 of them have progressed from a good run in handicap company last time out. If we take that angle, the field is narrowed down to 2 runners, Mister Universe and Realize. The former is not easy to dismiss from calculations, having won at Lingfield a week ago. He had the run of the race that day, dictating a slow tempo before quickening off the front. This will be only his second all weather start and whether or not Wolverhampton suits as much as Lingfield is open to debate. The bigger concern, though, is that there are 2 or 3 others of the field of 8 that can or would like to make the running.
Realize has been in superb form this winter, with form figures of 1211 in his last 4 starts. His only defeat was to a 110-rated horse, going down by under a length in a conditions race where the weights were against him. He would have been 10lb better off in a handicap. His record on the all-weather is excellent, winning 9 of his 18 starts, and he does have course and distance winning form here on Tapeta. Unlike most of the field, he’s happy to be held up and is versatile with regards to trip. Sean Levey takes the ride and is 2 from 3 on the horse whilst his trainer, Stuart Williams, couldn’t have his string in better order with 3 of his last 5 runners coming home in front.
Last year’s winner, Sovereign Debt, has some good form to his name but he may struggle to defy a 5lb penalty and has a 3 month absence to overcome. His record in Class 1 races reads 1 win and 5 2nds from 14 starts, and that’s the concern today that he will find one too good for the 13th time in a 34 race career. Chookie Royale is the other previous winner of this race lining up and, whilst he has a good record here, the battle for the lead is the reason for opposing him. His last 4 wins have all come when leading pillar to post, whilst his last 4 defeats have all been when failing to grab that front position early doors.
The other horse prominent in the betting is 111-rated, Kelinni. He comes here off the back of a run in a Group 1 in the USA but we are put off by his absence (161 days), his running style (front runner like so many others) and the fact this could all be happening too quick for him (his best form at 1m4f).
Back Realize (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 7.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3, BOG)
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4.00pm Wolverhampton
Our final bet comes in another Class 2 handicap, a competitive 6f race with 13 runners. The Richard Fahey trained Patrick is the current favourite at a best priced 7/2 but he is another priced up based on potential rather than achievement. He finished 3rd last time out, albeit very close up and on his seasonal debut, but has been raised in class and put up 1lb in the weights. The other one vying for favouritism is the David Barron trained Steelriver. He has run in this grade the last twice and finished out of the frame both times but has got excuses for those runs, losing a shoe last time and breaking slowly the time before. The worry has to be the number of times he’s been an unlucky loser and he is not one to be taking a short price about.
Barracuda Boy has top weight here and has been running really well, not finishing out of the first 2 in his last 5 starts. He has paid for that consistency though, racing off a career high mark today which is 4lb above his highest ever winning mark. Boomerang Bob has a fine chance and is another that has paid for his consistency. Since winning off a mark of 90, he’s had form figures of 22524 and should make the frame but again, could find 1 or 2 too good.
Zac Brown didn’t get the best of runs last time out and should be better for this extra furlong today. A promising 5lb claimer should help his handicap mark and he could go well but his trainers form and the horses tendency to pull hard doesn’t make him the most solid of betting propositions.
Instead, a chance is taken on 12/1 shot Basil Berry under champion jockey, Silvestre De Sousa. He’s only beaten 1 horse home in his last 2 runs but those runs can be ignored because of the trip. He had been running over sprint trips for the majority of 2015 but has run over 1 mile or more in his last 3 runs. The only run of merit in those 3 was the first 1 when 2nd of 5 where he dictated the pace; that effectively helped him to last home. Returned to sprinting today, Basil Berry should show improved form and his chances are enhanced by a 3lb lower mark and a return to the saddle for De Sousa, who has been on board for 2 of his last 3 wins. Whilst he has yet to win in this grade or off this mark, he’s been close enough to suggest these conditions aren’t beyond him. He should appreciate the strong pace and the return to this track where his form over trips short of a mile reads 325115.
Back Basil Berry (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 William Hill (1/4 odds 1-3, BOG)
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