The first day of the 3 day Dante meeting where it is expected we will get plenty of clues for Epsom in just over 3 weeks time. The 2 big races on Day 1 are the Group 3 Musidora Stakes for the fillies who should give us some ideas for the Oaks and the Group 2 Duke Of York for some of the top sprinters around.
3.45 York: Musidora Stakes
A small but select field of 7 runners which the bookies would have us believe is between 3; hot favourite So Di Mar as well as Fireglow and Best In The World. The favourite is currently a 6/1 shot for the Oaks and needs to win here if she’s to underline her credentials. She looks a very interesting prospect having won 2 from 2 including the Epsom Derby Trial on her seasonal reappearance with the 2nd and 3rd winning since. She looks tough to beat.
Fireglow is the most exposed of the 3 but does bring some very good form here, the best of which was last time out when 4th in the 1000 Guineas. She could improve for the extra 2 furlongs and she’s not easily written off. Like Fireglow, Best In The World is a 33/1 shot for the Oaks and, on form, she holds little chance. That said, she comes from the Aiden O’Brien yard and that should be enough to give her a chance.
A race to watch rather than get involved in. Instead, we’ll look to the opening 2 handicaps for our Day 1 bets from York.
2.10 York
7 of the last 9 winners of this have come here as 4 year olds but perhaps more interesting is that 8 of 9 have come here with no more than 7 flat runs to their name. If we narrow down the 14 strong field in this 10 furlong, Class 2 handicap to those with 7 or less flat runs under their belt, we reduce the field to 4 in Spanish Squeeze, Lord Ben Stack, Hernandoshideaway and Nayel.
The first one to dismiss is Hernandoshideaway who has been out of form for a few runs now. A shorter trip is now tried, something I’m not certain will suit, and the fact a first time hood is reached for is also offputting. Nayel is the 2nd to be crossed off the list. He’s 2lb out of the handicap and, in my opinion, looks a miler.
Spanish Squeeze is the current favourite and hails from the dangerous yard of Hugo Palmer. He has put Ryan Moore up for the ride which is a statement of intent and he certainly holds claims on his 2 year old debut 3rd when behind the high class Consort. Since then, he’s only raced on the all-weather and he has the worst of the draw in stall 14 so odds of 9/2 may prove to be a little skinny. I fancy he’ll make up into a Group performer in time but these conditions don’t appear to be ideal so I’ll take him on with Lord Ben Stack from the Karl Burke yard.
He ran 4th on his Haydock 2 year old debut behind a horse now rated 107 and running in Group 1 races, Medrano, before winning his 2nd start at the same track when stepped up to a mile. He made all that day and looks very comfortable, winning with plenty in hand. In 5 runs since, including 3 as a 3 year old, he largely disappointed. He took in a conditions race behind Star Of Seville as well as the Royal Lodge and the Dante so it’s fair to say he was very highly tried. Back at a more reasonable level, he finished runner up to Cymro at Haydock and would have won with a clear run.
Having been put away, he reappeared off 95 (same mark as today) at Pontefract on unsuitably heavy ground and failed to show his best. That said, his tendency to pull hard as he has done in his last 5 races didn’t help. All of those races have been in small fields at a relatively steady pace. This bigger field, as well as the inclusion of some prominent types, should help and if he settles better, he’ll go close especially as he’ll strip fitter and has better ground.
There are 3 other 4 year olds that didn’t quite make the cut, runs wise. None of Pacify, Revolutionist or Erik The Red can’t be written off but I’m happy to oppose them for the likely improvement we’ll see from Lord Ben Stack.
Back Lord Ben Stack (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 with Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
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2.40 York
Another Class 2 handicap but this time a field of 19 line up for this straight track 6 furlong event. Any number of these are in with chances and with pace across the track, there’s no easy draw bias to predict. The Kevin Ryan pair, Flaming Spear and Bogart, head the market with George Dryden the other one to be up there at the head of the market. I’m opposing all 3.
Whilst Flaming Spear ran a good race in 2nd against Accession at Newmarket and did look like a sprinter, I’m not sure whether he was well suited by the going and therefore may struggle on this better ground. That form has somewhat of an uneven feel to it so I can’t be taking 13/2 whilst Bogart, despite being well handicapped, hasn’t won for 3 years. George Dryden looks to be most solid of the 3 but has top weight and his mark keeps going up off the back of some real consistent runs. It’s really a question of when his mark catches up with him and I feel that might be today.
See The Sun was an impressive winner last time out when making all but is stepped up in grade and has 6lb more to carry. God Willing was 3rd that day and I was reluctant to take him on but he’ll be of more interest over an extra furlong. Hoof It continues to impress but he’ll need to improve on recent efforts to take a hand and, as a 9 year old, that’s unlikely.
The 2 I fancy to battle out the finish are the Richard Fahey pair, Tatlisu and George Bowen. They are closely matched on efforts last term and can’t be split by the bookies. Despite having already run this season which is a plus, I’m opposing Tatlisu. That is largely on the basis he’d prefer to come from further back on a course suited to prominent types and the fact that age is on his stablemate’s side, having raced as a 3 year old last term.
The bet, therefore, is George Bowen. He’s won first time out both years to date so I’m not too worried that he won’t be ready. He ran creditably last term in 3 year old handicaps but the progression came later in the season when stepped up to racing in bigger fields. He has 18 rivals today and his results in his last 4 runs last term were 1st of 15, 1st of 22, 2nd of 25 and 6th of 19. His 2nd win, at the Curragh, was better than it seems having been dealt an awful draw and he underlined himself to be a progressive type when 2nd in the Silver Cup to Tatlisu, finishing a head behind and just failing to get up. He will appreciate the ground, looks capable of defying his mark and still appears to be on the upgrade. If he improves from 3 to 4 which I expect he will, he should go very close here.
One other factor to consider is that Fahey’s runners are usually well primed for York and this race in particular. In the last 3 years, he saddled 5 runners that have gone off at 12/1 or shorter with 4 of them returning place money including the 2nd, 3rd and 4th last year. The only one to finish out of the frame was a close up 5th. Having been close, he’ll be keen to get in the winner’s enclosure today and let’s hope I’ve picked the right one to do just that.
Back George Bowen (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 with William Hill (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
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