South Africa’s lengthy tour of India finishes this week when the two sides meet in the fourth and final Test in Delhi.
India sealed the series with a match to spare when they came through in a controversial Test match in Nagpur last week. They now lead the series 2-0 and will be looking for a third win of the series.
South Africa have a series coming up with England over Christmas so I’m sure they will be looking to end the series with a boost to their confidence but based on what we’ve seen in the series so far that won’t be easy to achieve.
India’s spin trio have weaved all kinds of webs that the South African batsmen have got tied up in and with similar conditions expected here in Delhi there’s no reason to think that will change.
South Africa have been fine with the ball throughout the series but their batsmen have lacked the ability or the patience to persevere and prevail in these testing conditions.
Ajinkya Rahane’s form is going to be a concern for the Indian selectors but by virtue of the fact they have secured the series there is no need to hook him out of the side but he’s going to need a score you would think.
South Africa remain without Dale Steyn and Vernon Philander here which isn’t ideal but luckily it isn’t with the ball they have lacked in the series. Given the struggles their batsmen have had it may just be inevitable that changes are made in their batting unit.
There was talk that the Feroz Shah Kotla would lose this match because of financial irregularities but the High Court ordered it to stay at the famous Delhi venue.
This will be the 33rd time there has been a Test match on this ground. India have a 12-6 winning record in the previous 32 with 14 of them ending in a draw. South Africa play a Test here for the first time.
Before the series this might have been considered a decent venue for South Africa as the seamers usually get a bit out of the deck in the IPL here but given the wickets we’ve seen in the series and the talk that this will be no different to what has gone before you have to worry for the tourists once again.
If this wasn’t a dead rubber I’d be inclined to back India at 4/5 but I hate getting involved in matches like this where India have nothing to play for and it isn’t their favoured format of the game so mindsets could be missing.
There are a couple which take my eye though. The first is Ravi Ashwin and his performance line which on the face of it looks a little high at 150 but when you think he comes in here having scored 273pts in the previous match perhaps it isn’t that high after all.
In the first match he scored 183pts and the positive for us taking him with a high line is that he hasn’t really contributed with the bat in the series yet either so he still has plenty more points in him if we need them. From what we’ve seen of the South African batsmen we might not need any runs from him so that’s an obvious bet.
The other bet is a fade of Ajinkya Rahane. So far in the series he has a highest score of 15 in four innings and if you exclude his 126 in Sri Lanka earlier in the year he made just eight, four and four in the other three knocks so you can’t really make much of a claim that he’s in any sort of form.
He has a first innings run line quoted at 26.5 which looks a little high on these tricky wickets where even when batsmen have got in scoring has looked very difficult. There’s a good chance Rahane doesn’t make more than 26 first time around here.
Back R.Ashwin’s Performance Pts – 150&Over for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Back A.Rahane Under 26.5 first innings runs for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Ladbrokes
