The extended Independence Day weekend in the MLS 2025 season gets underway on Thursday evening when two Eastern Conference teams collide at Yankee Stadium as New York City FC take on Toronto FC.
New York City begin the round in the final spot in the postseason in the Eastern Conference whereas Toronto are going to need to chase pigeons in order to extend their campaign so they are just looking to spoil the party here. As ever, the MLS Season Pass on Apple TV has full coverage of the 00.30 kick off.
New York City FC
It has been a real up and down season for New York City FC so far. Just when you think they might have cracked everything they throw in an indifferent performance and with it a sloppy result and then you get down to the start of the process once again. That is where we are now after New York City FC were beaten by CF Montreal last weekend. There is a bit of a queue beginning to form behind them in the table but a win here would take NYCFC up to sixth in the Eastern Conference so it feels like a key game for them.
The good thing for New York City FC is that they are at home here. I say that because they have won eight matches in MLS this season and seven of them have been on home soil. Had it not been for their home form this would have been a write off of a season. The other positive for NYCFC here is they could very well have Alonso Martinez back for this one after he exited the Gold Cup on Sunday. He gives their attack another dimension which will help.
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Toronto FC
It has been another season to forget so far for Toronto FC. They have been getting things so wrong for so long now and while Robin Fraser might well turn then around in time, it doesn’t look like it is going to be a quick fix up in Canada, although the fact that Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernadeschi finally left the club this week does at least give them some room to do some work to their squad in the summer and look to buy players who will be more useful to them.
Insigne leaves BMO Field as arguably the worst DP player in the league history so it will be good for him to go. Letting them go in early July does suggest that they are giving up the ghost on this season and will be looking to build to improve going into next term. Those who are still around will be out to prove that isn’t the case but this is a Toronto side who are 11 points off the playoffs with just four wins from 19 matches with just two of them away from home, although they came in their last two road trips but the latest of those was on May 17 and lots has changed since then.
Betting
This looks like a great chance for New York City FC to win this match and I’m happy to take them on the -1 Asian line. That means if they win by a goal then we get our stake refunded but a win by two or more goals and we get paid out in full. New York are comfortable on home soil and potentially having Alonso Martinez back in their ranks for this match will be a positive for them, even if he is only good for a place on the bench to begin with.
The vibes and the optics around the departure of the two Italian players for Toronto FC would suggest that they have given up for the season. They are a poor side with those two and even though they haven’t featured recently, they haven’t really improved even allowing for their win in the game against Portland last time out. New York City have won the last five meetings between these two including a 1-0 win in the reverse meeting this term. I expect them to win here and I’ll take the chance that like their three most recent home wins, this one is by more than a goal.
Tips
Back New York City FC (-1AH) to beat Toronto FC for a 3/10 stake at 1.92 with William Hill
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