We will find out who will go to the Philadelphia Union in the next round of the MLS Cup Playoffs 2025 on Friday night when the best of three tie between Charlotte FC and New York City FC comes to a close when game three takes place.
Both teams have won on the opposing home ground so far in this series. Charlotte will be looking to buck that trend while NYCFC will be hoping it continues and that it is then heading to Subaru Park in a fortnight for the Eastern Conference semi-final.
Where to watch
As always the match will be shown live and in full via the MLS Season Pass on Apple TV. The build-up begins at 11.30pm with the kick off coming along at midnight UK time. The bookmaker live streams will show the game without the build-up.
Charlotte FC
You have to give Charlotte FC a lot of credit for staying alive in the series after dropping the opening game. That loss in game one was just the fourth that ‘The Crown’ have suffered inside their home stadium this season so knowing that they had to go on the road and win to get the tie back to the venue they are generally comfortable in, they deserve plenty of plaudits for achieving that. They needed penalties to get the tie back to Carolina but here they are.
They will now feel like they are favourites to progress from this position, especially if the absence of Wilfried Zaha in the opening game was the reason that they were beaten in it. It might actually be the loss of Pep Biel who picked up an injury during Leagues Cup and while the Charlotte results haven’t necessarily suffered as a result of that, their underlying numbers certainly have and suddenly there is a vulnerable look to the fourth seeds.
Special Offer
Open a new Sporting Index account and bet £10 on the MLS (min odds 1/2) to get £20 in free bets (2x£10 free bets) to use on any sports market! Click the image below to take advantage of this great offer! 18+ T&Cs apply. Gamble Responsibly.
New York City FC
After winning on the road in the opening game of the series, New York City FC will be disappointed not to get the job done on home soil in game two and now they need to repeat their heroics of two weeks ago if their season is to be extended for another fortnight. The good thing is that they know that they can win in this stadium and it wasn’t like they were beaten on their own patch, they just went down on penalties. The other positive for NYCFC is that the pressure is all on Charlotte here now.
New York City FC probably have the better technical players and in a match which if the series so far is anything to go by is going to be tight, that could be the difference in their favour. They will hope that is the case because their season is done if it isn’t. If there is a concern for NYCFC, keeping three clean sheets in succession against anyone is tough let alone the same side so the visitors might need multiple goals if they are to win this one in 90 minutes, but they have won five of their last six away matches which could be significant.
Betting
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if penalties are needed to separate these two sides once again but if there is a winner in 90 minutes I have to go with the visitors New York City FC based on what we have seen so far. In the two matches in this tie to date, Charlotte FC have a cumulative 1.17 in terms of xG and are yet to create a single big chance. That is reminiscent of their form without Pep Biel and the Spanish playmaker isn’t going to be around for the home side here.
Contrast that to New York City FC, they have posted xG totals over 1 in both games in this tie and while you wouldn’t suggest that they are cutting Charlotte FC open, they are clearly showing the better signs going forward. Home advantage is usually a big thing in MLS but we are in nothing to lose territory for New York City FC here whereas Charlotte have all the pressure on them and are expected to win. I’m not sure their attacking output is delivering enough to withstand that pressure so I’ll go with the visitors on the draw no bet market as another stalemate between two relatively evenly matched sides wouldn’t be a surprise.
Tips
Back New York City FC (DNB) to beat Charlotte FC for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Boylesports
Back them here:
