The second set of matches in the opening round of the MLS Cup Playoffs begin on Saturday night when five of the ties play their middle match with teams looking to seal their series with a game to spare and others aiming to force a decider.
As has been the case all season, full coverage of all of these matches will be available via the MLS Season Pass on Apple TV but those who don’t have that service can see the games on the bookmaker live streams.
Saturday’s fixtures are as follows: (UK kick off in brackets)
New York City FC vs Charlotte FC (19.30)
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union (21.30)
Nashville SC vs Inter Miami (23.30)
FC Dallas vs Vancouver Whitecaps (01.30)
Portland Timbers vs San Diego FC (01.30)
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Preview
The opening part of the evening is all about the Eastern Conference and we begin with the only home side in the postseason who can secure their series in front of their own fans. That is New York City FC who know that a win against Charlotte FC will see them through with a match to spare. When they are done Chicago Fire will look to force a deciding match in their series with Philadelphia Union. Having taken the Supporters’ Shield winners to penalties at Subaru Park last weekend the Fire will be confident of levelling the tie on home soil. The last match in the Eastern Conference is the marquee tie of the round as Nashville SC will look to force a deciding match against Inter Miami. Nashville fluffed their lines last week but need to be much better if they are to take the tie back to Miami. The visitors will be hoping to secure an extra week off by winning the tie here and now.
We have a couple of matches in the Western Conference on Saturday night as well with the top two seeds looking to make it through with a match to spare. Both go on their travels after home wins last week though. Vancouver Whitecaps will be the first of those teams. They will face FC Dallas for a third weekend in succession knowing if they get the win they are through but Dallas are likely to come out all guns blazing in that match. At the same time, the Portland Timbers will look to force a decider against the number one seeds San Diego FC when the two meet at Providence Park. Portland have lost to San Diego in the last two weekends and will need to make it third time lucky else their season is done.
Betting
Two bets jump off the page to me over the course of the night. It would have been three but the injury to Philip Zinckernagel puts me off taking the Chicago Fire in their match against Philadelphia Union. The first bet is in the Nashville SC vs Inter Miami match where goals just have to be on the agenda here. Nashville chose to sit back and look to contain in the first leg, a strategy which was never really going to work, but even then there were four goals in the match. Nashville aren’t going to be able to adopt those tactics here. They have to go out and attempt to win this match so I’m expecting to see something like their Decision Day meeting which ended 5-2 to Inter Miami. On that night the two xG figures were 2.97 vs 3.74 and chances came regularly. Nashville have to push on and against a Miami defence they should get joy but it will leave them exposed. I think over 3.25 goals is a cracking bet here.
The other bet that I like is for San Diego FC to get the better of the Portland Timbers for a third weekend in succession. The two met at Providence Park, where this match is taking place, two weeks ago when San Diego won 4-0 on Decision Day and then the top seeds in the Western Conference won 2-1 in San Diego a week ago. That is all bad news for Portland, who were carrying no momentum into the playoffs with them, as is the fact that San Diego are expected to have their talisman Chucky Lozano back for this one. To make matters worse, starting left-back Jimer Fory will miss this one because of his red card last week and with Anders Dreyer, the other leading light for San Diego, attacking that side of the pitch, that feels like a big loss. One good thing for Portland is they have had the better part of a week to prepare for this match which they didn’t have for the first game but I expect them to be outgunned as they have been in each of the last two weeks. San Diego only have a small squad so having the extra week off is a massive incentive for them here and I think that if this is won in 90 minutes, the better team will win and that is San Diego.
Tips
Back Nashville SC vs Inter Miami – Over 3.25 goals for a 3/10 stake at 1.92 with William Hill
Back San Diego FC (-0.25AH) to beat Portland Timbers for a 3/10 stake at 2.01 with William Hill
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