Australia finish their tour of New Zealand with two Test matches and the first of those takes place at the wonderful Basin Reserve in Wellington on Friday morning or Thursday evening UK time.
Australia go into the series knowing they recently beat the Kiwis over the best of three matches in Australia just before Christmas but in these conditions things look much more even.
These two matches form the culmination of Brendon McCullum’s international career and I’m sure the New Zealand players will look to send him off on a high but any time Australia are in Town it is a big thing.
Keeping with recent history, New Zealand have announced their side on the eve of the match and they have named Mark Craig as Mitchell Santner’s replacement while Corey Anderson is in for Neil Wagner. Santner is injured and New Zealand are going in with a spinner which is Craig. Tim Southee is fit to take his place in the side.
Australia dominated that series back home but this is a different task entirely, a task they got a mini snippet of when they lost the three match ODI series over the weekend. Their record on the road leaves a lot to be desired and they’ll want to improve that so the tourists don’t lack for motivation here.
Australia have also given their team on the eve of the match and they pulled a surprise out of the bag with Jackson Bird named ahead of James Pattinson. Pattinson had a great time of it in Australia so his exclusion wasn’t anticipated. Nathan Lyon has been included too.
The Basin Reverse is one of the most gorgeous grounds in world cricket so everyone tuning into this match will surely enjoy the scenery. The ground is staging Test cricket for the 58th time in this match. New Zealand’s record isn’t as strong as you might think. They are 16-18 in the win-loss department with 23 draws. Australia are 3-1 with five draws.
The wicket has had a lot of grass on it in the lead up to the match and while the majority of it will come off I expect the ball to do a bit in this match. Conditions in the air will assist swing and the pitch is likely to encourage some seam movement because Australia’s record against the moving ball in recent times isn’t very good at all.
The toss is often important here. The wicket can be tricky to bat on early on in the match but in the second innings it flattens out and becomes a good track for batting. Given the impact the toss could have I’m reluctant to get involved in the match outcome from the beginning.
There are a couple of bets I do like the look of though and both come in the form of the wicket keepers in either side. I’ll start with New Zealand’s one.
BJ Watling is a really proficient player at this level so I’m interested in his performance total where the target is set at 95. Watling has played in five matches on this ground and with the bat he averages 62.14. He has scored 124 and 142* in his last two Tests on this ground so he knows how to bat well on this pitch.
With the ball swinging and seaming he is in the game with the gloves too and that is highlighted by the fact he has taken six catches in each of the last two matches here so that 95 line looks a touch on the low side. An average game with bat and gloves should get him up to 95 but an exceptional one with either certainly does so I’ll take the overs there.
As for Australia’s keeper Peter Nevill, I’ll take him to top score for his side in the first innings. There is every chance whoever bats first could be in a spot of bother early on and need some rescuing from down the order and I like Nevill’s technique and temperament so he could well be the man to rescue things rather than the stroke players above him.
Nevill made a career best 66 in the first innings of the final Test between these two in Adelaide just before Christmas and that was a top scoring effort so he’s got previous and in these conditions he could easily go in again no matter what he is chasing.
Back BJ.Watling’s Performance Pts – 95&Over for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Back P.Nevill Top Australia 1st Inns Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill
