The middle match of the triple header of NFL action on Thanksgiving Day continues with tradition and comes from the AT&T Stadium as the Dallas Cowboys welcome the Buffalo Bills in a match which has two sides with winning records going at it.
The Bills are looking nicely on course for a spot in the postseason, whether as division winners or more likely as a wildcard, while Dallas have a battle on their hands if they are going to join them there so this is a crunch game for the home side.
The Dallas Cowboys take on a second AFC East team in as many matches here having faced the New England Patriots at the weekend. They went down in a low scoring contest on that occasion and will be looking to avoid a second successive defeat here. In order to do that their offense is going to have to come to the party in a much better way than they did in Foxboro, admittedly in some pretty horrible conditions there.
The big problem for the Cowboys this season has been a lack of consistency, hence their 6-5 record, although to be fair to them they have tended to win the important games, going unbeaten against their divisional rivals to date. They will have to find some victories away from the division though if they want to seal their playoff berth without using up too much nervous energy. That will fall on Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott.
Just quietly, the Buffalo Bills have been making good progress for a while now and that has been shown in their 8-3 record for the season. One of those losses was to the New England Patriots so you could argue they are going better than the bare numbers suggest. The big reason for that is their third ranked defence which particularly excels against the pass, which is never a bad thing in this sport these days. They are no mugs against the run either.
Offensively they are beginning to produce better results too with Josh Allen finding his way now and John Brown coming up with the goods on a regular basis. Cole Beasley returns to Dallas for the first time in this match and he’ll be out to make a positive impression so he is another weapon that Allen can call upon. If the offense plays to its potential and the intensity required, the Bills can certainly make this a tough night for the Cowboys at the very least.
It is hard to see too many points being scored here. Buffalo Bills have the third best defence in the league while the Dallas Cowboys rank sixth on defence. I’m expecting a pretty attritional battle in this match where point scoring and especially touchdowns are hard to come by. There will be a lot of running the ball and short passing plays with both quarterbacks under pressure.
You can get a 48.5pt line for the total points in this match and that looks comfortably too high to me. Both teams average less than 20pts a game against them and the Cowboys’ defence just showed their class keeping New England to just 13pts last week. Their offense isn’t performing to expectations though and I don’t see that beginning now. I’ll play the under here.
WON – Back Under 48.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.80 with William Hill
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