After a lot of will it or won’t it, the NFL season gets underway in the early hours of Friday morning as the stars of American Football come out to showcase their talents, sometimes in front of supporters and others in behind closed doors setups.
A lot has changed in the off season, both in personnel and structure which will create a bit of uncertainty but one thing we do know for sure is that the Kansas City Chiefs will be the ones defending their Super Bowl crown this term.
Recent Winners
2019 – Kansas City Chiefs
2018 – New England Patriots
2017 – Philadelphia Eagles
2016 – New England Patriots
2015 – Denver Broncos
2014 – New England Patriots
2013 – Seattle Seahawks
2012 – Baltimore Ravens
2011 – New York Giants
2010 – Green Bay Packers
Changes
There are a few changes to the structure. The squad sizes are one change. It used to be 46 on a game day and 53 during the week but that is now 48 and 55. Practice squads have also been extended. There have been no pre-season games heading into this season because of Covid-19. The postseason has also changed too. There is an extra wildcard in each Conference with just the number one seed getting a bye in the first week of the play-offs, adding extra importance on getting the best record along with the guaranteed home advantage that comes with it.
AFC
The defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs are the team who are the favourites to win the Super Bowl in Tampa Bay in February. Patrick Mahomes has the potential to lead a dynasty in Kansas and with his exciting offense and a defence which makes plenty of plays. The AFC West doesn’t look any stronger than it did last season so Andy Reid’s charges are worthy favourites for a second ring in as many seasons.
The Baltimore Ravens are the second favourites to win the Super Bowl at 7/1. A huge reason for that is the exciting talent that they have at quarterback in the shape of Lemar Jackson. If anyone can outscore Mahomes and friends it could be him and the advantage the Ravens would have is that they have a better defence. The disadvantage is that they are likely to have a tougher battle in their division so they might surrender home field advantage to the Chiefs.
We are used to the New England Patriots being right in the mix for the Super Bowl but they are 25/1 to be crowned champions this term. So much has changed at Gillette Stadium since we last saw the Patriots in action, not least the fact that Tom Brady has left. That is obviously a huge detriment to the chances of the Patriots and one of the intriguing things this season is how Cam Newton fares in the Bill Belichick system. If he can light it up the Patriots would have a chance but it is a big if based on his last couple of seasons in Carolina.
There are plenty of judges who think the Pittsburgh Steelers are dark horses to win the Super Bowl. They have done a lot of work on their defence and now boast one of the best in the NFL on that side of the ball but the obvious concern is the lack of durability of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. If he stays fit then with the likes of James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster making plays the Steelers can be more than competitive but they’ll have their work cut out in a tough division which is another negative.
NFC
The beaten side of the Super Bowl from last season, San Francisco 49ers, are the shortest NFC team in the betting for the Super Bowl. The obvious concern over the 49ers is the division they are in. You can make a half-decent case for all four teams in the NFC West so that is a problem. That might be the only concern though because we know how good they are defensively with Nick Bosa a superstar for them and their power running offense can cause any team problems. If it could be guaranteed that the 49ers would win the West they would be value at 10/1 but that isn’t guaranteed.
The New Orleans Saints are slightly bigger at 12/1 to be the Super Bowl champions. The obvious first thing to address with them is Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski turning up in the division at the motivated Tampa Bay Buccaneers but aside from that the Saints would look a more than fair bet. They are always solid on offense and they have filled their defence with playmakers. If the lack of a crowd inside the Superdome isn’t an issue I’d expect the Saints to go well but they seem to have issues whenever it comes to the play-offs.
The Dallas Cowboys are expected to be a much improved outfit under the stewardship of Mike McCarthy. They have by far and away the most talent in the NFC East but what they’ve not had in recent times is someone who can coach them properly. The former Green Bay Super Bowl winning coach has all the credentials needed to take the Cowboys to the next level which is Conference Championship games and Super Bowls. Dallas are serious runners at 20/1.
Seattle Seahawks are just a shade bigger than the Dallas Cowboys but they have the same issue I’ve already flagged up with the San Francisco 49ers. They are in one of the best divisions in football and I’m not sure going on the road throughout the postseason is going to be any kind of advantage so they’d need to win the division. Russell Wilson is always a game changer though and with the Seahawks improving on defence and having a solid run game they’ll be tough to beat if they can get some home advantage in the postseason.
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Super Bowl
I’ll go with a couple of sides for the Super Bowl. The Dallas Cowboys have flattered to deceive in recent seasons but I expect them to go very strongly this term. They had all the tools on offense beforehand with the likes of Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper but the drafted addition of CeeDee Lamb and some serious work defensively in free agency, not to mention the arrival of a more than competent coach I think the Cowboys will take some stopping. I don’t see Dallas not winning NFC East so if they avoid key injuries they look real runners at 20/1.
A more speculative value play comes in the AFC for us and we’ll go with the Tennessee Titans who have all the tools needed. They have a competent if not flashy quarterback in Ryan Tannehill and can control the clock through the running power of Derrick Henry. They have done some good work on their defence in the offseason with Jadeveon Clowney potentially a stud for them. The Titans were in the AFC Championship match last season and don’t look significantly weaker anywhere to suggest another deep postseason campaign is beyond them. At 33/1 they might be overpriced.
Division Betting
There are a couple of bets that I like in the divisions as well. I kind of feel compelled to bet in the AFC East with Tom Brady having left the New England Patriots. That isn’t to say the Patriots will be terrible as a result of that but it clearly isn’t a help and when you consider that the Buffalo Bills were only two wins shy of matching the Patriots last season, there is every reason to think that the roles could be reversed in this division. The Bills have a very good defence and with Josh Allen likely to continue to improve the 29/20 on Buffalo for the East just looks a shade too big.
There is a fairly open feel about the NFC North and while there is probably improvement to come from the Green Bay Packers, there is a lot of negative talk about their draft and things like that which would be a concern. Minnesota Vikings look to have stalled and heaven only knows what to expect from the Chicago Bears so it might be that the Detroit Lions, potentially rejuvenated with the return from injury of quarterback Matt Stafford, could be the ones to be on at a decent price. They are 11/2 and with plenty of offensive weapons at the disposal of Stafford, in a division that feels weaker than usual, the Lions might just be overpriced.
Tips
Back Dallas Cowboys to win Super Bowl LV (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with BetVictor (1/2 1-2)
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Back Tennessee Titans to win Super Bowl LV (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Sky Bet (1/2 1-2)
Back Buffalo Bills to win AFC East for a 3/10 stake at 2.45 with 888sport
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Back Detroit Lions to win NFC North for a 1/10 stake at 6.50 with William Hill
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