Another crazy Sunday in the NFL concludes with the Sunday Night Football which this week offers us a repeat of the AFC Championship game from last season as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Buffalo Bills on an evening which could give us a glimpse of where the AFC title might go this year.
The Chiefs have stuttered in the first month of the season with just two wins and two defeats from their opening four matches, while the Bills head to Arrowhead off the back of three wins in a row, and emphatic ones at that, so we are set up for a cracking encounter here.
Kansas City Chiefs
There has been plenty of pressure on the Kansas City Chiefs this season after they lost out in the Super Bowl last term. The pressure arrives from expectation, which heightened when they signed Orlando Brown to give Patrick Mahomes the protection he has needed for the last year or two. That has had the desired effect on the Chiefs offense, which even though they are only 2-2 for the season has been even more potent than before which scarcely seemed possible.
The big problem for Kansas City is that the extra offensive mite has come seemingly at a detriment to their defence which is ranking as one of the worst in the league after four matches. I don’t necessarily think there is a need to panic for the Chiefs yet as defensively they often begin seasons poorly, but that side of the ball will need to step up and be counted in this contest else they might give themselves a lot more work to do to be in Los Angeles in February.
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Buffalo Bills
With every passing week the first match loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers looks weirder and weirder for the Buffalo Bills with every passing week. The Steelers continue to flounder while the Bills have kicked on from that in some style. They have run up the score on their three opponents and have restricted them to little or nothing. The immediate accusation that will get levelled at them is that they have played three weak teams since that opening week loss. That might be true but you can’t do much more than overwhelm these sides and the Bills have definitely done that.
The three wins for the Bills have been against the Miami Dolphins, Washington Football Team and Houston Texans but they have won those matches by a cumulative score of 118-21. That shows us that their defence is playing well but it is a lot easier to play good defence when teams fall so far behind. We will find out all about their defence here. Their offense looks to be in great order though and you sense this could be a shootout so Josh Allen will need to keep his attacking players at it for the whole 60 minutes.
Betting
I’m not the biggest player of total points lines in the mid-50s, certainly not the over anyway, but I’m struggling to see how this one doesn’t turn into a shootout. I say that because the Chiefs defence has looked very ordinary throughout the season and there isn’t any evidence that it is getting a whole lot better. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills might not have beaten anything in terms of quality but they’ve feasted on the buffet in front of them and get another ‘all you can eat’ night here.
The bigger question, and possibly the defining factor in the outcome of the match, is whether the Bills defence is as legit as it is being hyped up to be or whether they have just come up against four poor quarterbacks and weak offenses. If it is the latter the Chiefs are likely to have their way with them. If it is the former then we have a real game on. Even if it is somewhere in the middle the options open to Patrick Mahomes are just so vast that the Bills D are going to have their work cut out. There were 62 points in the AFC Championship match and I’m expecting at least 56 here.
Tips
Back Over 55.5pts for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Boylesports
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