We are already into Week 3 of the NFL 2021 season and as always the action begins with the Thursday Night Football, which this week comes from the NRG Stadium as the Houston Texans host the Carolina Panthers.
This match offers two of the lesser lights of the NFL getting to showcase their talents in a primetime clash and for the Panthers in particular they have the chance to highlight that they mean business this season after a perfect start.
Houston Texans
When the season started the Houston Texans were expected to be one of the worst teams after a bit of a wretched close season with the DeShaun Watson saga taking over. They managed to raise expectations when they took the Jacksonville Jaguars to the cleaners in the opening match of the campaign but you get the impression those hopes will fade after Tyrod Taylor picked up an injury last week which is going to keep him out of this match and many more.
That means the rookie quarterback Davis Mills will get his first start here, having started just 11 matches in four years at Stanford. That is less than ideal in itself in a nationally televised game but when you think he is replacing an athletic quarterback, with all the signs suggesting that Mills is much more static, you do fear for the Texans here against a strong defence. The Texans own defence is going to need to stand strong to help the rookie quarterback not need as many points to win the game as expected.
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Carolina Panthers
While there are a few issues for the Houston Texans to deal with, there is no such problem for the Carolina Panthers who have begun the season with a pair of wins. You could probably pick a few holes in the win over the New York Jets should you want to. They look a terrible side right now but there was no holes in the win over the New Orleans Saints. The big positive is that Sam Darnold has settled in well at quarterback and as his confidence with his receivers grow he is likely to get even better.
The other positive is the Panthers’ defence. It is a fancy statistic that they have conceded the least number of points of any team in the league after two matches. They have played a terrible Jets offense which skews that but the statistic that might be more relevant here is that they have 10 sacks on the season already. That defence gets a look at an immobile quarterback in this match so the Panthers D is likely to crank up the pressure and some.
Betting
I’m not a huge fan of backing road sides in these Thursday night games and never have been but it is hard to go against the Carolina Panthers here. The quarterback situation in Houston is a clear problem for this match and the short week to prepare isn’t going to help with that. It might have been less of an issue if the Panthers defence wasn’t going as well as it is but they will rush the passer and they will know that there is a heavy reliance in the Houston passing game on Brandin Cooks so they can double team him and heap more pressure on Mills.
The other joy the Panthers can have here is in the running game. Christian McCaffrey has started the season really well, like he wasn’t injured last season really, and the Texans’ run defence has just been blown wide open by the Cleveland Browns which is a massive problem. The other issue for Houston is that Sam Darnold comes alive as a passer in play-action plays and the Texans’ defence is ripe to be exposed in that way. This just looks like a terrible matchup for the Texans and so I expect Carolina to win this and win it well.
Tips
Back Carolina Panthers (-7.5) to beat Houston Texans for a 3/10 stake at 1.85 with Coral
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