The final match of the NFL 2021 Playoffs Divisional Round comes in the second part of the double header of action on Sunday and it is a repeat of the AFC Championship game from last season when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills.
The dynamic of this changed on Saturday evening. Before then the two were expecting to meet for the right to travel to the Tennessee Titans next week but they will actually earn the right to host the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship match if they win here so this is huge.
Kansas City Chiefs
For the first half of the regular season it looked like the Kansas City Chiefs were suffering from a hangover after losing the Super Bowl last term but a switch flicked at that stage and in the second part of the campaign and in the playoff opener last week they have looked a lot more like the team we know they can be. This is a side built to overwhelm sides offensively and they weren’t doing that earlier in the season but they very much are now.
If there is a concern over the Chiefs then it remains that their defence can be exposed but they don’t seem to mind that because they will back their offense to get the job done. The real positive Patrick Mahomes and his men have is they know how to go all the way in the NFL playoffs having won the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. That belief can be huge in a massive high stakes game like this. If their defence can just slow the Bills down for a bit the Chiefs will be hard to beat.
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Buffalo Bills
There was a visible disappointment in the way the Buffalo Bills lost out in the AFC Championship game at this venue last season and almost immediately plans were put in place to ensure that won’t happen again. Now is the acid test of those plans, although the Bills will be boosted by a regular season win over the Chiefs in a match they dominated from start to finish. On that night there was no containing Josh Allen and we got a reminder last week just what the Buffalo quarterback can do.
The Buffalo offense ran riot against the New England Patriots last weekend to show just what they can do and although their defence wasn’t watertight, it made enough plays when it mattered. The secondary is going to be tested here but if they can make enough plays then you get the feeling that Buffalo will fancy their chances here. The one thing Buffalo can’t afford to do is think too much about last year or what they are playing for. Just try and beat the team in front of them.
Betting
I’m not a lover of backing the over in playoff football but how can you ignore it here? Both these sides put up more than 40 points against decent defences last week and when they met in the AFC Championship game last year and in the regular season this year both encounters were full of points. The playoff game last year had 62 points and there were 58 in the Bills’ win earlier this term so I have to think we could be in for a wide number of points here.
The points line for this one is just 53.5 and while that is high for a playoff game, these two sides aren’t running the ball brilliantly well so I’m not sure there will be much in the way of managing the clock with the run game, not unless both quarterbacks do much of it and I would imagine the contest is too big for those kind of plays to be dialled up regularly. Unless the offenses make a real mess of things in the red zone I’m expecting this one to sail past this point total.
Tips
WON – Back Over 53.5pts for a 3/10 stake at 1.85 with BetVictor
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