The second match of the NFL 2021 Playoffs gives us our first divisional battle of the wildcard round when AFC East rivals Buffalo Bills play host to the New England Patriots with the two sides meeting for the third time this season.
They both won one regular season match each so the trilogy match has everything on the line. The Patriots won the first game while the Bills were victorious in the second. They both won in each other’s stadium so the Bills will be hoping that trend doesn’t carry on.
Buffalo Bills
When the Buffalo Bills were beaten in that extraordinary match at home to the New England Patriots it looked like they were fading away in the race for the AFC East title but to their credit they got themselves together and bounced back nicely and in the end they won the division pretty comfortably and get the reward of hosting their bitter rivals here. They will be looking to make a much stronger effort than the last time these two met here.
You get the feeling that if the Bills are going to win this match and progress to next week then Josh Allen will need to get the passing game working. To be fair to him, the Bills go into this one off the back of a four match winning streak, the second of which was the revenge game over the Patriots. Buffalo have only conceded 25 points in their last two matches but their defence is probably going to face a tougher test here.
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New England Patriots
Obviously the fact that this is a playoff match makes it a big match but it might be a defining one for Mac Jones and this New England Patriots side. When they left this stadium after their win earlier in the season they looked to be cruising towards the AFC East title but nobody told the Bills that. To be fair to the Bills, there was an element of the Patriots surrendering that advantage because they finished the season in very ordinary form.
That means there are question marks over the Patriots in this match. The first one is whether their defence is strong enough to compete at this level or if their good play in the middle of the season was purely a case of them taking advantage of a kind schedule. The other question mark is whether their rookie quarterback is ready for a match of this profile. If they answer both in the affirmative they can’t be ruled out here.
Betting
I’m not sure those questions will receive a couple of positive answers though. The New England defence looks like it has been exposed in recent times, not least by the Buffalo Bills who put 33 points up on it just three weeks ago. A pretty average Miami Dolphins scored the same amount of points against it last week so if there is no improvement in that regard I expect this good Buffalo offense to put up a lot of points.
That might force the hand of New England to go into no huddles and abandon running the ball which isn’t a bad play anyway. That makes me think the 42.5 point line looks a little on the low side here. I don’t know if the regular season game here where Mac Jones threw the ball three times all night has anything to do with that but there is no significant wind forecast here and the weather is expected to play ball. I’m not totally sold on this Bills defence and the New England one is getting exposed a little too regularly right now so the over looks the bet here too.
Tips
WON – Back Over 42.5pts for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with Coral
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