The Super Wild Card round of the NFL 2021 Playoffs continues on Sunday with a triple header of action which begins in Florida where the defending champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Buccaneers know that if they win this they will be hosting a playoff match again next week while an Eagles win will punch them a ticket to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers next weekend so there is all to play for here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers picked up a good win over the Carolina Panthers last week to book the number two seed and ensure they will host matches in the first two weeks of the playoffs if their run lasts that long. They are starting to come under a bit of pressure personnel wise though with injuries cropping up more regularly and then they had the issue with Antonio Brown a couple of weeks ago as well which didn’t reflect well on anyone.
Despite all that, the Buccaneers keep on finding a way to win and putting up decent numbers offensively. That probably takes some of the attention away from their defence, which is actually the best run defence in the league statistically, although some of that is skewed by the fact that teams are often behind early against the Bucs and having to ignore their run game. Tom Brady already has an amazing legacy in January and he’ll be looking to further cement that here.
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Philadelphia Eagles
Prior to last week the Philadelphia Eagles were in fine form as they stormed away from a pretty bunched pack to seal a place in the playoffs. They had won six out of seven matches before last week. I leave last week out of the form judgement because they had their wildcard place sewn up and so rested pretty much all their important starters so although they took a good beating by the Dallas Cowboys, there were mitigating circumstances to the loss.
The success story behind the improvement in form of the Eagles has very much been establishing their run game. They are one of the best rushing teams in the league, helped significantly by the legs of Jalen Hurts at quarterback. Their defence has certainly stepped up over the last six weeks or so as well and that department of their game will be strongly tested here, especially with a relatively new quarterback playing in his first playoff game.
Betting
I thought the spread, while it looks big at 8.5 points, was about right earlier in the week but as we close in on game time and it looks more and more certain that inclement weather will impact this match with strong winds forecast and even monsoon like conditions. They are not the conditions you want to be passing the ball in but it remains to be seen whether the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the run game to win the match on the ground.
I think this match comes down to whether the Philadelphia Eagles’ crack hot rushing offense can get the better of the excellent Tampa Bay run defence. They didn’t run the ball very much at all in the meeting between the two sides earlier in the season save for the final quarter where they scored a couple of garbage time touchdowns to make the score more respectable than the game was. You would think that would ensure Nick Sirianni will pound the run here whether conditions dictate it or not and while that might not be enough to guarantee winning the game, if the Eagles are even 75% successful with it it will take enough time off the clock and allow them to get into enough scoring positions to stay within nine pts.
Tips
Back Philadelphia Eagles (+9) to beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Coral
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