Week 13 of the NFL 2022 season kicks off with a Thursday Night Football that is all about the AFC East as the Buffalo Bills look to move to the top of the division when they make the short trip to Gillette Stadium to take on New England Patriots.
This is one of the two divisions in football that every side in it has a winning record so every match between teams within it carries extra significance, even more so as we close in on the end of the regular season.
New England Patriots
The New England Patriots haven’t really caught fire this season but they go into this match 6-5 for the year and probably need to find four wins at the very least to have a chance of extending their campaign into January. The Patriots were on a three game winning burst, which they saw come to an end a week ago when they went down to the Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving. They will be looking to start another one here.
We are used to seeing Bill Belichick and his men control parts of the opposing offense but they were unable to stop the special talents that the Vikings have and there are similarities between the Minnesota offense and the Buffalo one so it will be interesting to see how they go about their work here. One thing we can assume is their own offense is going to need to be on it here because it is hard to see New England winning a low scoring game unless conditions influence it.
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Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills have now won their last two matches, including a Thanksgiving Day win on the road against the Detroit Lions. That came after a couple of defeats and have got them right back in the race for the AFC East title. A win here will move them top of the division and will put the pressure on the Miami Dolphins later in the week. It would pretty much put paid to New England having a realistic chance of catching them which is important too.
The Buffalo offense stumbled in one of those lost games but it looks to have rediscovered itself recently. If there is a concern it is that they have given up 23 points or more in three of the last four weeks and they won’t want to be heading into the playoffs with their defence giving up points to that level. They will fancy their chances in shootouts but it has been their undoing in the postseason before and they have recruited to ensure it doesn’t happen again.
Betting
Usually I’m against backing the road team on the Thursday night but both of these teams have had the full week to prepare for this game so I’m slightly more tempted to take the Bills here but their defence is concerning me too much to actually pull the trigger on them. I’m not that keen on backing New England having lost four of the last five against the Bills over the last two seasons either so I’ll go to the player markets for a bet in this one.
There are concerns about Josh Allen through the air at the minute with talk of an elbow injury but as Belichick brings the pressure and the blitzes I suspect the scrambling very of Josh Allen will come to the fore. That makes me think that his 44.5 rushing yards line is low. It is low anyway when you consider in the last five games he has rushed for 49, 86, 84, 7 and 78 yards. In the last two meetings with New England last season he rushed for 64 and 66 yards so he has previous against this defence. Using Allen’s legs to avoid him throwing it all night seems to be a ploy at the minute with him getting lots more carries so I’ll play the over on that line.
Tips
Back J.Allen – Over 44.5 rushing yards for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with BetVictor
Back him here:
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