We begin another week in the NFL 2025 season with the Thursday Night Football which this week sees us heading to Texas as two of the best teams in the AFC last season collide when the Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills.
Both teams were winners of their division last season and enjoyed a postseason campaign but they have some chasing to do if they are going to replicate that this time around and losing here will not help their chances of that.
Houston Texans
The Houston Texans made a really slow start to the season but they have won three of their last four to arrive at this Week 12 clash with a 5-5 record but they are still three games behind the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South so a defeat here would probably leave them chasing a wildcard, and there are a number of teams with better records than them in that particular chase, so the Texans really need to take advantage of being at home in this primetime showdown.
The Texans are one of many teams who are suffering from injuries and they will once again be without their quarterback C.J. Stroud. To be fair to his replacement Davis Mills, he has won the last two matches and looks to be getting enough out of the offense to get the job done and that needs to continue here. The Texans defence has kept their opponents to under 20 points in three of their last four matches so if the offense can continue to produce the goods there is no reason why Houston can’t go well here.
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Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills would have gone into the season as the favourites to win the AFC in the eyes of many after impressing a lot last year. They still failed to make the Super Bowl though and haven’t had the first half of the campaign that they would have wanted. They go into this match 7-3 for their season and are well on course for another postseason tilt but they are a couple of matches behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East so they need a win here if they are going to get after them.
Injuries are not helping the Bills. They have ruled out Dalton Kincid, Mecole Hardman and Curtis Samuel so that is three cogs in the passing game who are going to be missing so Josh Allen is going to need to stand up and be counted and will probably need James Cook to assist with the run game. The key to success or victory is likely to be the Buffalo defence though. They are coughing up yards on the ground and on a short week that isn’t likely to change but they need an improvement defensively while they manage these offensive injuries.
Betting
Anyone who has read the Thursday night previews will know that I’m always reluctant to get involved in these games from a match betting standpoint because of the short week and that is even more the case here with the number of injuries that are involved but there is a way in for this one and it comes in the running game for the Houston Texans, which they should be able to exploit even more than usual when you consider the lack of recovery time for the Buffalo Bills’ defence.
That takes me to the rushing yards of what is now the Houston number two running back Nick Chubb who has a line as low as 20.5. There is no doubt he has seen his carries reduce in recent weeks with Woody Marks taking over as the leading back but Chubb still has covered this line in eight of his 10 matches this season and with Houston potentially running the ball more than usual against a Bills defence which has given up 399 rushing yards in the last two weeks, even if Chubb plays second fiddle he should get enough carries to get to 21 yards. Marks might have become the number one back but he has only averaged 3.3 yards per carry in the last two games and if he starts slowly here the roles could quickly be reversed. However it plays out, this line for Chubb looks too low so I’ll play the over.
Tips
Back N.Chubb – Over 20.5 rushing yards for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with William Hill
Back him here:
