The Christmas Day action in the NFL 2025 season concludes with a third division clash as we head to the AFC West for the showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos on what could be an emotional night at Arrowhead Stadium.
Usually at this time of year we would be preparing for the Chiefs to either wrap up this division or be pushing for the number one seed in the AFC but it is actually the Broncos who have that role to play in a match where the emphasis is solely on them.
Kansas City Chiefs
It doesn’t matter what happens in this match or the one next week, the Kansas City Chiefs will not be playing playoff football this year. That means that this could be the last time that Travis Kelce graces the turf at Arrowhead Stadium in a Chiefs uniform and so there will be plenty of narrative and emotion around that. That might actually help the Chiefs because if their best receiving option is motivated to have a big game then they would have a chance of going well.
The problem is that Patrick Mahomes is done for the season with an ACL injury and as luck would have it the backup Gardner Minshew has now suffered the same issue so the Chiefs will be utilising a third choice quarterback here. Chris Oladukun looked ok when he came into the game against Tennessee last week but the 2-12 side at the time still came out on top, which doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs here. They’ll need more than Kelce at his best to get anything from this and he’ll be handicapped by the quarterback issue.
Special Offer
Sign up for a Boylesports account and bet £10 to get up to £20 in free bets! Perfect offer for the NFL! Click the image below for this great offer! New accounts only. 18+ T&Cs apply. Gamble Aware.
Denver Broncos
With all that in mind, everything looks to be in the favour of the Denver Broncos picking up the first of the wins that they need to earn themselves a week off when the playoffs come around. Denver could actually win the AFC West with a win here should Los Angeles Chargers lose later in the weekend so the Broncos will be all out to pile the pressure on the Bolts. They will have had their fire fuelled by the loss to Jacksonville Jaguars last week too and will be wanting to show that was just a blip.
Denver are starting to get one or two more injuries than they would want so that week off in the first round of the playoffs would certainly be welcome so they will be all out to win here and the fact that they would get the better of a team who have caused them so much pain in recent times will come as an added bonus. Their defence should enjoy itself here and then the onus will be on their offense to deliver. I suspect that they will want to get their run game going again but they have enough threats in the passing game to be comfortable here.
Betting
When I knew that this fixture was on the horizon and Patrick Mahomes was injured I was eyeing up the under but with the injury to Gardner Minshew as well the line has plummeted to 36.5 and on a primetime showing that is just a little too low for me to get involved with so I’m going to bet around the bigger narrative on the night and that is the receiving yards for Travis Kelce, who you would imagine is automatically going to have a big night.
He has a receiving yards line of 34.5 here which is very low for a man who is probably the leading receiver for the Chiefs with Rasheed Rice now out with injury. Of course it is that low largely because it is Chris Oladukun who is going to be throwing to him but generally with inexperienced quarterbacks the playbook is scaled back to give him some easy passes and given that Kelce can pick up yards after the catch I still think this line is within his range. He has only caught one pass in two of his last three matches but in the 13 where he has caught multiple passes he has covered this total in 12 of them which bodes well. Denver struggle with tight ends and you’ve got to think if this is Kelce’s last dance at Arrowhead he is going to be targeted more than usual in the passing game. Add into the mix that Denver are nearly two score favourites here and that takes away the Chiefs run game in the game state and I expect Kelce to cover here.
Tips
Back T.Kelce – Over 34.5 receiving yards for a 3/10 stake at 1.95 with Betway
