The middle match of the three in the NFL 2025 on Christmas Day takes us from the NFC East to the NFC North where the Detroit Lions will look to keep their lingering playoff hopes alive when they make the trip to the Minnesota Vikings.
The Lions go into the week knowing that four results have to go their way over this week and next in order for their season to be extended. The first of those is that they must win here and with Minnesota having seen their year end a while ago this looks like a good spot for Detroit to guarantee the first of those four outcomes.
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings would have gone into this season hopeful of delivering another positive campaign but that certainly hasn’t happened and as a result of that they are last in the NFC North with just seven wins from their 15 matches. To be fair to the Vikings, they have had massive issues with injuries to the quarterback position and the result of that is they haven’t been able to find consistency and already know that their season will not go as far as the postseason.
To be fair to the Vikings, they haven’t downed tools once their season was confirmed as done and they have won their last three matches despite their quarterback issues. In two of those games they have put up more than 30 points so they deserve credit for that. Max Brosmer will get his second NFL start in this one having replaced J.J. McCarthy last week and he led them to the game winning drive but with an opposition having prepared for him it will be interesting to see if he can deliver the goods here.
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Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions were on course for another postseason tilt until a few weeks ago but three defeats in their last four matches have left their hopes hanging by a thread and out of their hands. They need to win their last two games and hope that the Green Bay Packers are beaten in both of theirs to secure the last spot in the postseason from the NFC after the spurned the chance of a win against Pittsburgh last week when they couldn’t convert a last drive into a touchdown.
If the Lions are to get the two results that they can control then their defence is going to need to step up and be counted as it has been gashed in recent times. They have conceded 27 points or more in their last five matches and their defence has been battered by the run in recent games. They are more than adept at winning shootouts but there are question marks over a couple of offensive players which isn’t ideal so if the defence can step up it would do the Lions no harm.
Betting
The Detroit Lions are favourites to win this but they are under intense pressure to do it and they will be all about winning rather than anything fancy in terms of covering spreads which are more than a touchdown and things so I’m reluctant to get involved with them, especially as they are on the road on a short week. One problem the Lions are having is stopping giving up rushing yards and that leads me to Aaron Jones, who went for nearly nine yards per carry in the reverse meeting between these two.
Detroit have shipped an average of 145.4 rushing yards in their last five matches including 230 against Pittsburgh last week and on a short week it is inevitable that a weakening defence will gas so that brings Jones right into the game. There is no Jordan Mason who he has been sharing carries with this week so Jones will be the main focus of the run game. In two of the last three weeks he has posted 76 and 85 yards and against a weakening defence he has a line of 59.5 yards. The threat is that Detroit fly off into an early lead but with a third choice quarterback making just a second start you would still be surprised if Minnesota abandon the run completely so I like Jones to get to 60 yards however the game plays out.
Tips
Back A.Jones – Over 59.5 rushing yards for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Bet365
