The second match of the three in the Thanksgiving Day triple header in the NFL 2025 season takes us to the home of the Dallas Cowboys as they welcome the Kansas City Chiefs in a tasty clash which has playoff implications on it.
Both of these teams are three games behind the leaders in their division so you would imagine from here on in a wildcard is the best both can achieve but the losers here will see those hopes dented significantly so both needs to win this one.
Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys were probably always going to be battling for a wildcard spot from the NFC East given the strength of the Philadelphia Eagles and that is how it is looking but with a 5-5-1 record, you would imagine that Dallas are going to need to win at least four of their last six matches in order to have a chance of the wildcard. The positive is that two of those five wins have come in their latest two outings, including that crazy comeback win over the Eagles last week. That should have built their confidence nicely.
In the early stages of the season the Dallas Cowboys defence was getting shredded all the time. That was understandable when you consider how late they traded Micah Parsons away to the Green Bay Packers but the longer the campaign has gone on and reinforcements have arrived, the better that unit has got. That has allowed the offense to thrive and with the receiving options that Dallas have at their disposal that is certainly no bad thing. This might be the strongest version of the Cowboys that we’ve seen all season.
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Kansas City Chiefs
One of the bigger surprises of the season so far is the demise of the Kansas City Chiefs. The NFL is built that dynasties never last forever and while the end of the Chiefs’ one always looked to be in sight, most would have thought it still had another year before it came to an end but a 6-5 record suggests that we have got to that stage. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, it has coincided with the Denver Broncos coming good in the AFC West and left Kansas City chasing a wildcard spot.
The Chiefs are currently in a real battle for the final wildcard spot but with a number of teams with a 6-5 tally for the season, a defeat here would be really damaging to their chances. This is a different Chiefs side to the ones which have gone before. They are relying on their defence to get the job done, although there have been one or two signs that the offense has started to come good. The big positive for the Chiefs is they are heavily rehearsed in winning tight matches which might come in handy here.
Betting
If I had to pick a bet on the match win or the spread I would side with the Dallas Cowboys here but having had the Monday night game two weeks ago this is now their third match in 10 days and at this stage of the season that isn’t a recipe that I like to get involved in. Regular readers will know I’m no backer of away teams in Thursday games so that leaves me looking to the points market for a bet on this middle match and despite the performances of the defences recently, I like the over.
I always think these Thanksgiving matches are higher scoring than if they were played at any other point. Teams raise their game for the primetime element of it and offenses get the chance to go up against tiring defences who are backing up from a match four days ago. I do expect these defences to tire. Kansas City played an extra eight minutes on Sunday having been taken to overtime while the Cowboys were having to deal with a physical Philadelphia offense. Both of these offenses have the potential to be potent and so I don’t think a 51.5 point line is quite high enough. I’ll take the over.
Tips
Back Over 51.5 points for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
