We have reached Week 10 of the NFL 2025 season and it begins with the Thursday Night Football which is all about the AFC West this time around as the leaders of the division, Denver Broncos, host the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Broncos are flying but will know that they need to keep on winning because they are being chased hard in the AFC West. Las Vegas haven’t had the season that they would have wanted and might already have an eye on next season.
Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos were a playoff team a season ago and their immediate aim would have been to be one this time around as well. They have started very well in that quest and at 7-2 for the year they can probably limp towards a wildcard spot now. Their sights are probably much higher than that now though. They head the AFC West and although the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs are chasing them, the Broncos are in control of their own destiny. Winning is key but winning this game in their division is even more important.
The Broncos have won their last six matches and are looking good on both sides of the ball. The offense is solid rather than spectacular but the defence is proving very hard to go against. The pass rush is picking up sacks at an enormous rate and the pressure they are getting on the quarterback is taking the heat off the back field. The Broncos offer up a balanced offense and on a short week with home advantage they are entitled to be very tough to beat.
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Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders changed the coach and the quarterback going into this season but that has not had the desired outcome and they head to Colorado with a 2-6 record for the campaign and fighting for any kind of competitiveness for their year. A defeat here would probably end their season competitively so they are under pressure to win here. That might focus the minds but playing on the road on a short week is never the easiest of tasks, especially this deep into the year.
The big problem that the Raiders are having is their offensive line is performing very badly and that is certainly not ideal when facing this Broncos pass rush. The offensive line is in the bottom three in the league on metrics and so it is probably no surprise that the Raiders are struggling to put up enough points to win matches. They will need to establish a running game here else the pressure on their offensive line, quarterback and then defence may be too much to withstand.
Betting
I’ve made the point about these Thursday night matches not following logic a few times this season but this is one where I would be surprised if the expected outcome doesn’t materialise. Denver Broncos are nine point favourites though which on a short week certainly doesn’t interest me but I’m rarely wanting to be on a road team in the TNF. I don’t want to be with the Raiders here but with lines all skewed towards the Broncos finding a bet that I like isn’t the easiest thing ever here.
The one thing that we regularly see is that the away defence tires on the short week with little preparation and recovery time in among all the travelling and that makes me think that the odds against on J.K. Dobbins to score a touchdown is the best bet here. He can punch one in from close range on the ground or he can catch a pass in the red zone as well so he has scoring methods. Dobbins scored a touchdown in four of his first five matches but hasn’t scored in his last four. Against a defence which is expected to tire he can change that on the short week.
Tips
Back J.K. Dobbins anytime touchdown for a 3/10 stake at 2.35 with Coral
