Another week of NFL 2025 action draws to a close with the Monday Night Football which this week sees us go to the home of the AFC champions Kansas City Chiefs when they welcome the Washington Commanders to Arrowhead Stadium.
Both teams are playing catch up to good looking teams in their division so even though we are still in the opening half of the season, you feel that this is a match that neither can afford to lose if they want to host matches in January.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs have been the team to beat for near enough the last decade but no dynasty lasts forever and they have found the going much tougher this time around. They are 4-3 for their season but when you consider that at one stage they were 0-2, they have come to the party in recent weeks and will be looking to move to within a game of the ledger of the Denver Broncos in the AFC West with a victory on home soil in this match.
The big catalyst in that turnaround has been the return to action of Xavier Worthy and since he returned to the starting position the Chiefs offense has been the third best in the league. They will be looking to enforce their offense on the Commanders’ defence here. Kansas City haven’t been quite as dominant defensively as they were last year but in this recent rivals they have kept Baltimore and Detroit to 20 points and 17 respectively and nilled their rivals Las Vegas Raiders.
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Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders made it all the way to the NFC Championship game last season but they are going to need to sprout wings and fly if they are going to get there this time around. They begin the night 3-4 for the season and with the Philadelphia Eagles already 6-2 for their year, the Commanders are already in a position where they can’t afford to lose many more if they are going to fight for the division title, or in truth even a wildcard once again.
Injuries certainly aren’t helping the Commanders at the minute and they are going to be without their starting quarterback Jayden Daniels for this match. Backup trigger man Marcus Mariota isn’t the worst in the world and Washington haven’t really suffered on offense since he has come in but their defence is leaving plenty to be desired and that isn’t a good thing going into this one. Washington matches tend to be high scoring as a result of that.
Betting
The Kansas City Chiefs are double figure favourites to win this match which means that should they live up to that billing then they are going to be safely in front at some point in the contest and that could lead to them running the ball more than you ordinarily would against such a weak pass defence. Were that to happen then the rushing yards line of Kareem Hunt looks a little on the low side to me at 18.5, a line he has covered in five of his seven matches this term.
Hunt doesn’t always get many carries but he won’t need too many to get to 19 yards. He averages 3.87 yards per carry so he is going to need six carries at that average to get the job done here but the Washington defence could easily weaken in this match and they have given up plenty of rushing yards anyway. I wouldn’t be completely surprised if Hunt has a run for double figure yards. He has done that in three of his last six matches and if he has one here then he only needs to get into the line of scrimmage a few times to get this line covered. Hunt has gone over 18.5 yards in five of his last six and went for exactly 18 in the other. I think he covers here.
Tips
Back K.Hunt – Over 18.5 rushing yards for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Betfair
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