We started week 12 with tips on all 3 Thanksgiving Games on Thursday. Of those tips 5 of 6 won so we have started week 12 well!
I will cover two games in this preview – one from each time slot.
Early Games – Kickoff 1pm Eastern – 6pm UK
San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins
This one has mismatch written all over it. The 49ers are vying with the Cleveland Browns for the worst record in the NFL this season. The 49ers have a single win with 9 losses and a -109 points differential. The Dolphins in contrast are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They have 5 wins on the bounce to take them to a 6-4 record. In that streak they have raised their points differential to +2 and are now in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race.
The 49ers have a been a little more competitive of late than their record suggests. QB Colin Kaepernick has been inconsistent, but he has so few weapons to really hurt opponents. Here he faces a Dolphins defence that is ranked 13th overall and 8th against the pass. The Dolphins also rush the passer well and Kaepernick has struggled when under pressure. Miami can be vulnerable to strong running games but I don’t rate the 49ers RBs that highly.
The Dolphins winning streak has coincided with the emergence of RB Jay Ajayi as a power back with long speed. Since Miami really committed to the running game Ajayi has elite statistics. This gives the Dolphins a huge advantage in this game. The 49ers run defence is absolutely wretched. They are last in the league giving up almost 180 yards per game. Only lone other team is giving up more than 127 per game to give that some context. Miami will run the ball at will in this game, control the clock and hit the WR duo of Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker from play-action.
The Dolphins are huge favourites to win this game at home. The spread has been set at 7.5 and I can see Miami winning by 10+ points. The total points has been set at 44.5 and this too is tempting. Miami averages 21 points per game and the 49ers 20 – so their average games combined are lower than this. My fear is that Miami control the ball, Ajayi busts a long run and the WRs get free a couple of times too. If this happens the total points will be busted.
Player Markets
I really like two players here and both are Dolphins – Jay Ajayi and Jarvis Landry. Ajayi and the Miami run game will be licking their lips here against that run defence. Ajayi has a line of 90.5 for this game and I’m confident that bet will come in. Landry too has what looks like a generous yards line at 61.5. Landry has been below that line in the last 3 games but part of that has been scheme. Here with a running game going wild Landry will have a lot of space to have a decent game.
Late Game – Kickoff 4.25pm Eastern 9.25pm UK.
Carolina Panthers v Oakland Raiders
The AFC’s number one seeds play the Super Bowl runner-up in Oakland in a live TV game in the UK. The Raiders have been a revelation after more than a decade of futility. Their success has been built on a highly effective offence and defence that bends (a lot) but doesn’t always break. They are coming in to Sundays game on a 4 game winning streak following another come from behind 4th quarter win on MNF.
Carolina have disappointed this season and currently have a 4-6 record, sitting at the bottom on the NFC South. They have been gutted by injuries and lose two key players this week in All-World MLB Luke Keuchly and C Ryan Kalil. I think these injuries are going to be crucial in the outcome of this game. Keuchly is the glue for this defence. He calls the plays and gets player aligned. The Raiders passing game is based on a myriad of pass routes in all zones, short, intermediate and long. They will attack in all areas at any time and look for mismatches in alignment.
Similarly, the Panthers OL is weak in pass protection. Both OTs have given up a lot of pressures and QB Cam Newton is amongst the most-hit QBs in the NFL. Raiders DEs Khalil Mack (8 sacks) and Bruce Irwin (3 sacks and a lot of pressures) will be a handful all game. Playing a backup at C can lead to the mistiming of snaps, penalties and fumbles.
In spite of the OL issues the Panthers offence does have some dangerous weapons that can be difficult to control. TE Greg Olsen will have a big game against a Raiders secondary and LB crew that cannot cover TEs. The big bodied WR duo (Benjamin and Funchess) can box out defenders. Newton will be a threat running the ball because of his size. They will score here but I don’t think they can match the Raiders.
Oaklands offence is based on the passing game with QB Derek Carr having a sensational 3rd year. He utilises a lot of different players with WR’s Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree his primary weapons. The Panthers CBs have been burned a lot by teams that have protected this QB. Oakland has given up the fewest sacks in the NFL this season so it is hard to envision a scenario where Carr doesn’t get big yardage. Without Keuchly the Panthers lose a player that forces a lot of turnovers. Again this is important because the Raiders rarely turn the ball over.
The line here is -3.0 and I can see Oakland easily covering that and this is my main team bet. I can see the total points of 49.5 being beaten too.
Player Markets
I like two players with 3 lines in this game.
Oakland is abysmal against the TE. Panthers TE Greg Olsen is having a brilliant season. He has a catch line of 5.0 and yardage line of 62.5 in this game. I’m taking both. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him have a 10-120 line in this game!
For the Raiders I’m going to place a smaller bet on WR Amari Cooper to go over 86.5 receiving yards. This is around his per game average but he plays a CB duo that has been beaten a lot this season.
NFL Week 12 Tips
Team Bets
Back Miami Dolphins (-7.5) to beat San Francisco 49ers with a 3.0/10 stake at 2.0 with Bet365.
Bet here:
PUSH – Back Oakland Raiders (-3.0) to beat the Carolina Panthers with a 3.5/10 stake at 1.91 with Skybet.
Bet here:
Player Bets
Back Jay Ajayi to rush for over 90.5 yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Jarvis Landry to go over 61.5 receiving yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Back Greg Olsen to catch more than 5 passes with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Greg Olsen to go over 62.5 receiving yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Back Amari Cooper to go over 86.5 receiving yards with a 2.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Bet on all of them here:
OFFERS
188BET
Money back if LeSean McCoy scores a Touchdown in the Bills v Jaguars.
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FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER – TREBLE ODDS
Bet on the 1st Touchdown scorer in the games Live on Sky Sports. If they score first and score in the 1st quarter Betfair will treble your odds!
Cardinals vs Falcons
Panthers vs Raiders
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