NFL – Week 12 Sunday DFS Fantasy Breakdown

As ever when there is a Sunday of the regular NFL season taking place there is a massive $1 million prize to be won playing Fantasy Football with our official NFL fantasy partners at DraftKings.

Due to the scheduling of 3 games on Thanksgiving there are fewer teams playing on Sunday this week. This makes selection a little trickier.

Despite that there are plenty of players to choose from and here is our guide for who to pick and who to avoid in your teams this week.


Quarterbacks

PICK – Russell Wilson (Seattle) – $6,700

Wilson is getting better this season as the injury to his ankle heals. He has been deadly in deep passes of late and has great rapport with his receiving core. Seattle plays at Tampa this week. Tampa gave up 500+ passing yards to the Raiders a few weeks ago.

PICK – Derek Carr (Oakland) – $6,300

Carr is coming off a monster 4th quarter in week 10 and is a legitimate NFL MVP candidate. The opponents this week – Carolina have given up a lot of passing yards this season. They are also missing their MLB Luke Kuechly which will open up the middle of the field. Look for Carr to have a huge game.

PICK – Ryan Tannehill (Miami) – $5,500

I don’t expect Tannehill to have huge yardage numbers because the Dolphins will dominate with their running game. I do expect him to get a couple of short yardage touchdowns like in week 10.

AVOID – Andy Dalton (Cincinnati) – $5,400

The Bengals season is unravelling with injuries to key players (WR AJ Green and RB Giovanni Bernard being the two latest). This week they play the Ravens that feature a strong defence. Each of the Bengals lines has struggled in recent weeks – particularly the pass blocking so Dalton could be under a lot of pass-rush pressure here.


Running backs

PICK –David Johnson (Arizona) – $8,900

Yikes, he is expensive! But he goes against the 31st ranked defence against RBs. Johnson should go over 150 combined yards in this game and is a huge threat in the passing game. Oh yes, he scores touchdowns too!

PICK –Jay Ajayi (Miami) – $7,600

I think Ajayi may be the weeks leading rusher. Miami plays the worst run defence in the NFL this week as the 49ers visit. Only possible downside is that Miami like to throw the ball inside the red zone.

PICK –Lamar Miller (Houston) – $5,800

The Texans are coming off a tough MNF loss to Oakland. In that game, as per most of the season Miller was effective. Miller scores touchdowns too and goes against a 25th ranked Chargers defence.

AVOID – DeVonta Freeman (Atlanta) – $6,400

Freeman is a dual threat but I feel the Falcons will be more succesful passing the ball against a Cardinals defence that is tough against the run.


Wide Receivers

PICK – Amari Cooper (Oakland) – $7,700

Usually, when Derek Carr has a big game so does Cooper. Last week was an exception as the Raiders schemed their passing game towards the RBs. This week they play a 24th ranked Panthers secondary. Cooper is primed for a huge game.

PICK – Doug Baldwin (Seattle) – $6,400

Baldwin is Russell Wilsons top red zone target. This week the Seahawks play a Tampa Bay defence that struggles to contain WRs 🙂

PICK – DeAndre Hopkins (Houston) – $6,300

There were signs of life from Hopkins on MNF. He had a long touchdown nullified by a poor call and was a threat all game. In week 12 he plays an ailing Chargers defence that is vulnerable against bigger WR’s. Can QB Brock Osweiler put up another solid showing?

PICK – Rishard Matthews (Tennessee) – $5,800

Matthews has a good matchup with a Chicago defence that struggles against all WRs. If the Titans OL can keep QB Marcus Mariota clean then Matthews is a decent threat in this weeks fantasy competition.

AVOID – Allen Robinson (Jacksonville) – $7,200

Every time I think the Jaguars are showing some signs of form they drop off just as quickly. The Bills defence will blitz a lot on Sunday and this will throw off the Jags passing game. QB Blake Bortles has regressed badly in 2016 – Robinson’s numbers will suffer for this on Sunday.

AVOID – Brandin Cooks (New Orleans) – $6,800

The Rams are strong against the pass., They have a strong pass-rush and physical CBs. I think the Saints passing game will work on Sunday because QB Drew Brees gets the ball out quickly. I think his targets may be the bigger WRs on the roster over Cooks.


Tight Ends

PICK – Greg Olsen (Panthers) – $5,800

Oakland really struggles against TEs – they are amongst the worst team in the league in catches and yards. Olsen is the favourite target of Panthers QB Cam Newton. Look for them to connect often and keep Carolina close for 3/4s of the game.

PICK – Dennis Pitta (Ravens) – $3,200

Pitta has a great matchup on Sunday against the Bengals (30th ranking against TEs). The Bengals have injuries in their LB core so Pitta should be open a lot.

AVOID – Tyler Eifert (Cincinnati) – $5,600

The injuries that Eifert had early in the season have taken some of the explosion he had from his legs. I don’t anticipate him being 100% until 2017. The loss of WR AJ Green means the Ravens can roll their coverage towards Eifert to slow the Bengals down.


Defences

PICK – Seattle – $3,500

In the last few weeks the Seattle defence has been back to its dominant best. The pass rush has been functioning well and the LBers and secondary make plays in the passing game.

PICK – New Orleans – $2,800

This is purely because the Saints are playing a rookie QB Jared Goff who looked a little lost in his season debut last week. The Rams played super-conservative in that game and weren’t able to generate much yardage. Look for a repeat here.

AVOID – Carolina – $2,600

The Raiders passing game is elite and the Panthers have injuries in their starting XI. The Raiders don’t give up sacks nor do they turn the ball over.


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