The NFL International Series returns in Week 4 of the 2016 season as the Indianapolis Colts play the Jacksonville Jaguars in London.
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
An interesting observation before looking at the game – no team that has lost a game in London has made the playoffs that season!
This is a MUST WIN game for each team. The Colts are currently 1-2 and the Jaguars 0-3. A loss for Jacksonville and their playoff aspirations are gone. The Colts could still make it if they drop to 1-3 but that would leave them needing to go at least 7-5 the rest of the season.
There is a chance that this is a high-scoring game. The strength of each team is their passing game – although the Jaguars have yet to really catch fire like in 2015.
Prior to the Thursday Night game, Colts QB Andrew Luck was 7th in the NFL in passing yards with 913 and Jags QB Blake Bortles was 11th with 843. Of the two Luck has looked better this season as evidenced by a QB rating of 93.2 to Bortles 75.0. I amongst many thought the Jaguars would be a breakout team this year but their offence has struggled.
I put much of this on Offensive Coordinator Greg Olsen. His schemes are easy to counter. He was run out of Oakland when the offences he ran were mediocre at best. Bortles too has missed some touchdown passes with errant throws. This needs to be corrected on Sunday for the Jaguars to stick with the Colts.
The Colts beat San Diego last week behind strong games from Luck, WR TY Hilton and RB Frank Gore. They currently average 27.0 points per game (5th best in the NFL). I can see them getting close to this on Sunday. The Jaguars defence has looked fairly solid as the new faces gel. The Colts might have too many weapons for them to contain for 60 minutes.
I think the Colts will win the game. But I’m not keen on their odds at 1.73. The handicap with the Colts giving the Jaguars a 2 point head start at 1.91 looks tempting. However, I like another market a little more.
The Jaguars scoring defence is 26th at 28.0 per game and the Colts are worse at 30th with 31.7 per game. In light of this the total points market looks like a good place to bet at 48.5. The weather forecast for London on Sunday is fair – cool with sunshine so this shouldn’t negatively impact the playing conditions.
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Tips
WON – Bet on over 48.5 points in the game with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.91 with Sky Bet.
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