Week 7 of the NFL season continues with a host of games on Sunday. I have some tips here from the early and late games. They include three of the teams that were in games that I provided tips for last week!
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (kickoff 1pm Eastern 6pm UK)
The Dolphins surprised a lot of people in week 6 with a stunning victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. In that game Miami were finally able to get both their pass rush going and their running game on offence. They managed to knock Steelers QB Ben Rothlisberger out of that game and also power RB Jay Ajayi over 200 yards.
In week 7 they face a Buffalo team that is in a serious roll with 4 straight wins. The Bills have really emerged as a threat to New England in the AFC East division. On offence Buffalo owns the NFL’s number one rushing attack, averaging an impressive 166 yards per game. This has taken the pressure off QB Tyrod Taylor and allowed Buffalo to score 27 points per game. That mark is good for 5th best in the NFL and they boast a turnover differential of +8.
On defence Buffalo is a top 12 rated unit that attacks the QB hard – they have a league leading 20 sacks. The Dolphins OL held up well last week against the Steelers, but the Bills pass rush is more potent and will chase QB Ryan Tannehill all day.
I’m really surprised the line on this is set at 2.5 points. This is probably an over-reaction to Dolphins the win over the Steelers last week. I can see Buffalo winning this game quite comfortably.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (kickoff 4.25pm Eastern 9.25pm UK)
This is a bit of an easy call. The Patriots with QB Tom Brady are starting to look ominously good. The Steelers have had moments of brilliance (the win over the Chiefs) and moments of ineptness (loss to Miami). Now they are without star QB Ben Rothlisberger for an extended period of time. I thought they would struggle to stay with the Patriots with Big Ben playing now I give them little chance of winning.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has been praising Pittsburgh RB LeVeon Bell’s skillset in the media this week. This is a classic Belichick ploy as the Patriots will game plan Bell out of the game. Then post game Belichick can say to the media “look at what we did are we and I great!”
I don’t expect Pittsburgh to be as flat as against Miami in week 6 but I see some matchup nightmares for them. NE RB LaGarrette Blount will be a handful with his size and power. Pittsburgh couldn’t stop the run last week – can they stop Blount? I can see the TE pair of Gronkowski and Bennett having big games against the Steelers LBs, missing Ryan Shazier and Safeties.
For Pittsburgh to have any chance they have to play turnover free. That means there will be huge pressure on backup QB Landry Jones. He has two elite options in the passing game in Bell and WR Antonio Brown. He has to connect with them often to keep the game close.
The line here is 7 points. I like the Patriots to cover this with some ease.
I also like Rob Gronkowski in the player market. His line has been set at 70.5 yards and I like the overs a lot.
Week 7 Bets
Back Buffalo -2.5 to beat Miami with a 4.0/10 stake at 1.88 with Unibet.
Bet here:
WON – Back New England -7.0 to beat Pittsburgh with a 4.0/10 stake at 1.91 with SkyBet.
Bet here:
WON – Back Rob Gronkowski to get over 70.5 receiving yards with a 3.5/10 stake at 1.85 with BWin.
Bet here:
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